MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Rockies

Los Angeles Dodgers (56-27) vs. Colorado Rockies (42-39), 6/28/19
Time: 8:40 pm ET Friday, June 28
Where: Coors Field, Denver, CO
Listed Pitchers: Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-1, 1.27 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) vs. Antonio Senzatela (6-5, 4.91, 1.57)
TV: SportsNet LA, SportsNet Rocky Mountain

Moneyline: Dodgers -210/Rockies +185
Over/Under: 11.5

Los Angeles upped its record against division rival Colorado this season to 7-0 with a victory in the opener of this four-game series Thursday night. The Dodgers shoot to make it 8-0 with emerging ace Hyun-Jin Ryu Friday night. How are we playing this game for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened Los Angeles and Ryu at around -185 over Colorado and Senzatela, with an over/under of 11.5 runs. Early betting action then shot that line up to about -210.

The Dodgers could also be found at around -140 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Dodgers vs. Rockies Set-Up

Los Angeles grabbed the opener of this series Thursday night 12-8, avoiding disaster as a -230 post-time favorite. That game was tied at 8-8 through eight innings when the Dodgers put up a four-spot in the top of the ninth off Colorado closer Wade Davis.

That late outburst also helped LA cover against the run line at a price of -135. And Thursday’s game easily played over a total of 12.5 runs.

With Thursday’s win, Los Angeles is 8-2 over its last 10 games.

With Thursday’s loss, Colorado is 2-5 over its last seven games.

At 56-27 overall LA now leads the NL West by 13 games over the 42-39 Rockies. The Dodgers are also 7.5 games up on Atlanta in the battle for the best record in the National League, while Colorado is now one game behind Milwaukee and Philadelphia in the fight for the two National League wild-card spots.

Los Angeles also now leads the season series with the Rockies seven games to none.

Friday’s Starting Arms

Senzatela, by our stringent standards, is 7/14 on quality starts this season and five for his last six. Last Sunday he held these Dodgers to two runs and five hits through 6 1/3 innings, although Colorado lost that game 6-3. And while he’s allowed 13 earned runs over his last six starts, covering 35 innings, six of those runs came in one bad outing against the Cubs.

For the season Colorado is 8-6 with Senzatela, 4-2 over his last six starts.

Senzatela’s only other career start against the Dodgers came back in his rookie season of 2017, and that’s already kind of a long time ago.

Lefty Ryu is an amazing 13/15 on quality starts this year, working on a streak of 11 in a row. Last Saturday he held these Rockies to one earned run and six hits through six innings of a 5-4 Los Angeles victory. And over his last 11 starts, he’s allowed just seven ER and 59 hits through 78 2/3 innings.

That comes to a 0.80 ERA over that span.

Los Angeles is 11-4 with Ryu this season, 8-1 over his last nine starts.

Over his last two starts against Colorado, one last year and the one last week, Ryu allowed one ER and 10 hits through 13 innings. The Dodgers won both those games. However, both those games were played at Dodger Stadium.

Friday’s Batting Splits

Los Angeles is batting .268/.346/.484 against right-handed pitching this season.

Colorado is batting .272/.336/.466 against left-handed pitching this year.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen owns a 4.07 ERA this season and a 1.19 WHIP while allowing a .683 OPS.

The Rockies pen owns a 4.54 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP while allowing a .756 OPS.

Totals Report

• Overs are 41-38 in Dodgers games this season.
• Overs are 42-35 in Rockies games this season.
• Overs are 24-14 in games played at Coors Field this season, despite totals regularly posted at 11 and above.
• Unders are a combined 15-13 in games started by Senzatela and Ryu this season.
• Overs are 4-2 in Dodgers-Rockies games this season.

Free MLB Pick

Los Angeles and Ryu own the advantage in the pitching match-up, and the Dodgers hold the edge in the bullpen comparison. So we like LA here. And we also like taking chances, chasing better prices. So we’ll give the run and a half and play the Dodgers against the run line.