MLB Picks: Brewers vs. Padres Predictions 6/20/24

Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Date: Thursday, June 20th, 9:40 ET
Location: PETCO Park
TV: None
Money Line: Brewers -116/Padres -103
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the San Diego Padres and the Brewers on Thursday, June 20th at PETCO Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Thursday’s forecast in San Diego calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 70s. First pitch for this NL matchup is set for 9:40 PM ET from PETCO Park. The Brewers are 44-30 this season and they are on a two-game winning streak. The Padres are 38-40 and have Adam Mazur on the mound. Milwaukee is starting Bryse Wilson.

The money line odds have the Brewers at -116, while the Padres are at -103. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs. Milwaukee is currently in 1st place in the NL Central, while the Padres are 3rd in the NL West.

Brewers vs. Padres Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Milwaukee Brewers: 44-30 SU / OU 38-33 / Runline 38-36
San Diego Padres: 38-40 SU / OU 38-39 / Runline 40-38

Brewers Records & Recent Play

The Brewers’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Angels, closing out their series with a 2-0 win. After scoring a run in the 1st inning, the Brewers went on to add another run in the 2nd. Milwaukee’s offense was carried by Freddy Peralta, who also tossed six scoreless innings, picking up the win.

Peralta was also excellent on the mound, going eight innings and giving up just three hits. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and didn’t issue a walk. The Brewers’s bullpen closed things out with Trevor Megill picking up the save.

Milwaukee is on the road today to take on the Padres, and they lead the NL Central with a record of 44-30. The Brewers hold a 7.5-game lead over the Cardinals for the division lead. The Brewers have gone 18-9 against other teams in the NL Central this year.

The Brewers have won two straight games, and they took the final two games of their series vs. the Angels. So far, they are 22-12 at home and 22-18 on the road. As the favorite, the Brewers are 25-14 this year and 19-16 as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 15-7-2, and they have won four straight series overall and two straight on the road.

Despite an overall run differential of +0.9 runs per game, the Brewers have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 38-36 overall. They are 23-17 vs. the run line on the road and have covered in their last two games. They are 15-24 vs. the run line as the favorite and 23-12 as the underdog.

The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today, facing the San Diego Padres. The O/U line for the game is set at 8.5 runs, which is slightly below the combined run average for these teams this season. The Brewers have played 71 games this season, and 51.4% of those games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.

Padres Records & Recent Play

The Padres are coming off a game in which they closed out their series vs. the Phillies with a 5-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at +160 on the money line. It was a big second inning for the Padres, as they scored their first run of the game and added three more runs in the inning. San Diego’s offense was hot right out of the gates, and the Phillies could only score two runs, both of which came in the 3rd.

Matt Waldron put together a good start for the Padres, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. San Diego’s offense was carried by Jackson Merrill, who went 2/3 with a homer and a run scored.

San Diego will open their series vs. the Brewers nine games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. The Padres are 38-40 overall and are 3rd in the NL West. So far, they have gone 14-15 in divisional games.

At home, the Padres are 18-21 this season and 20-19 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 24-23 and 14-17 as the underdog. San Diego closed out their most recent series with three straight wins at home. This year, they are 2-6 as the home underdog.

San Diego’s run line record is 40-38 on the season, but they’ve been much better on the run line on the road (27-12) than at home (13-26). They’ve been a good bet as the underdog this season, going 21-10 on the run line, while they are just 19-28 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.8, while it’s -3.3 in losing games.

San Diego’s games have averaged 8.7 runs this season, and their over/under record is 38-39. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 8-11. The under has hit in two straight games for the Padres.

Pitching Matchup

Bryse Wilson is getting the start for the Brewers today and comes in with a record of 4-3 and an ERA of 3.84. So far this season, he has made eight starts and 17 appearances. Wilson’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.25, and he has allowed a total of nine home runs. Looking back at his last outing, Wilson pitched 5 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, picking up the win and not allowing a run. Before that outing, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight appearances. Wilson’s ERA on the road is 8.77 compared to 3.08 at home.

Adam Mazur is making his third start of the season for the Padres, and he has yet to pick up a win. In his first start, he went 6 innings and gave up just 1 run, but he took a no-decision. In his last start, he went 3 innings and gave up 8 runs to the Diamondbacks.

Brewers vs. Padres Offense Outlook

William Contreras has been one of the Brewers’ top hitters this season, coming into the game with a batting average of .304 and 48 RBIs, which is 9th in the league. He also has nine homers, which is 3rd on the team. Willy Adames has a team-high 12 home runs but is batting just .240 for the season. Adames has gone deep three times in his last 10 games, but he is hitting just .241 over that stretch.

Christian Yelich has been swinging a hot bat for the Brewers, going 11/36 in his last 10 games with a homer and three RBIs. Over that same stretch, Willy Adames has three homers and nine RBIs. Gary Sanchez is on a four-game hitting streak, while William Contreras has hits in three straight games.

San Diego’s offense has been one of the league’s best so far this season, as they are 2nd in team batting average and are 10th in home runs. Overall, they are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 4.7 runs per contest.

Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth have been a nice 1-2 punch in terms of power, as they are both tied for 2nd on the team with 10 homers. Profar is also batting .323 for the season, while Cronenworth comes in at just .251. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with 13 homers and is 3rd on the team with 35 RBIs.

Free Brewers vs. Padres MLB Pick

Although Bryse Wilson was originally planned to work out of the bullpen for the Brewers, he has filled in well in a starter role. Even though the Brewers have still been able to rack up some wins, their offense has been up and down of late. Luckily, with Adam Mazur on the mound, I see Milwaukee putting up some big numbers. My pick is to take the Brewers on the money line.