MLB Picks: Braves vs. Padres 7/14/24

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Date: Sunday, July 14th, 4:10 ET
Location: PETCO Park
TV: BSSE
Money Line: Braves -180/Padres +152
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the San Diego Padres and the Braves on Sunday, July 14th at PETCO Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Chris Sale gets the start for the Braves on Sunday, and they are facing off against the Padres, who will be starting Randy Vasquez. This game is set to get started at 4:10 PM ET from PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Braves are the heavy money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -180 compared to the Padres at +152. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and the forecast is clear for Sunday’s matchup.

The Braves are 52-42 this season, while the Padres are 50-48, and this game will be televised on BSSE. In the NL East, the Braves are in second place, while the Padres are third in the NL West.

Braves vs. Padres Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Atlanta Braves: 52-42 SU / OU 32-57 / Runline 44-50
San Diego Padres: 50-48 SU / OU 52-45 / Runline 50-48

San Diego cruised to a 4-0 win over the Braves in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 2nd inning, scoring all four of their runs. As for the Braves, they had their best scoring chance in the 5th, but could only muster one run. Heading into the game, the Padres were favored at -137 on the money line.

Dylan Cease started for the Padres and picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with 11 strikeouts but issued three walks. Reynaldo Lopez got the start for the Braves and took the loss, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work.

Manny Machado was the difference for the Padres’ offense, as he went 3/4 with a home run and two RBIs. David Peralta and Luis Arraez each had two RBIs for San Diego’s lineup.

Braves Records & Recent Play

With a record of 52-42, the Braves are 2nd in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 9.5 games. The Braves will be on the road today, taking on the Padres, and they are 23-25 on the road this season. At home, the Braves have gone 29-17 this season. So far, they are 14-12 in divisional games.

As the favorite, the Braves have gone 48-34 this year, and they are 4-8 as the underdog. Atlanta’s overall series record is 17-11-3, and they are currently tied in this series vs. the Padres. Heading into today’s game, the Braves are 5-5 over their last 10 games.

When the Braves win, they win by an average of 3.7 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.1 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 44-50, and they are 23-25 against the run line on the road. As the favorite, they are 38-44 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 6-6.

When the Braves hit the road, they tend to play in high-scoring games, with a combined run average of 7.9 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 32-57, and their games have an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, the Braves have gone over the total in six games and under in ten. Overall, 77.7% of their games this season have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.

Padres Records & Recent Play

San Diego is currently 3rd in the NL West, and they trail the Dodgers by seven games for the division lead. The Padres are 50-48 overall, and they are 15-17 in divisional matchups. So far, they have gone 26-27 at home compared to a mark of 24-21 on the road.

The Padres will be hosting the Braves today, and they are 29-29 when favored this year and 21-19 as the underdog. San Diego’s overall series record is 17-12-3, but they have dropped two straight series.

San Diego is 50-48 against the run line this season, with a run differential of +0.2 runs per game. They have been a better bet on the road, going 31-14 against the run line, compared to 19-34 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 28-12 against the run line, compared to 22-36 as the favorite.

The Padres have played a lot of high-scoring games this season, with a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game. Their over/under record is 52-45, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 16-16. The under has hit in their last three games.

Pitching Matchup

Chris Sale gets the start for the Braves today and comes in with a record of 12-3 and an ERA of 2.74. Out of his 17 appearances, Sale has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 11.66 strikeouts per nine innings. Overall, he has 136 strikeouts, which ranks sixth in the league. Sale has been especially tough at home, going 8-0 with a 3.40 ERA. On the road, his record is 4-3 with a 2.74 ERA. In his last outing, Sale went 5 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and picking up the win.

Randy Vásquez gets the start for the Padres today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he turned in a solid performance. Against the Diamondbacks on July 5th, Vásquez went 6 1/3 innings, giving up just two earned runs. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Looking back over his last four starts, Vásquez has finished with a no-decision in three straight outings. His record for the season is 2-4, and he has an ERA of 4.66 to go along with a WHIP of 1.60. Opposing batters are hitting .315 off Vásquez this season.

Braves vs. Padres Offense Outlook

Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear of late for the Braves, going 13/35 in his last nine games with five homers and 10 RBIs. Overall, he is batting .304 with 26 homers and 77 RBIs, which is 2nd in the league. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team with 13 homers but is batting just .229 for the season.

As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They are also just 14th in batting average and have the league’s 11th ranked home run total. Overall, they are batting a collective .241.

Over the past seven games, Jurickson Profar has gone just 4/27 at the plate, but two of those hits have been home runs. Overall, he is batting .303 for the season and leads the Padres with 14 home runs and 59 RBIs, which is 10th best in the league. Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth are also tied for 2nd on the team with 13 homers.

San Diego’s offense is averaging 4.5 runs per game this season, which is 13th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. As a team, the Padres are batting .261, which is the 2nd best mark in the league, and they also have the fewest strikeouts in the league.

Free Braves vs. Padres MLB Pick

Since giving up eight runs all the way back on June 1st, Chris Sale hasn’t given up more than two runs in any start since. So far, he is already 2-0 in the month of July. Look for the Braves to come out on top in this one backed by a good outing from Sale. I not only see them winning straight-up, but like them to cover the run line in their final game before the All-Star Break.