MLB Picks: Atlanta Braves and New York Mets

by | Last updated Aug 14, 2023 | mlb

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Date: Sunday, August 13th, 7:10 ET
Location: Citi Field
TV: ESPN
Money Line: Braves -131/Mets +110 (Do yourself a favor and learn reduced juice!)

Total Line: 9.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the New York Mets and the Braves on Sunday, August 13th at Citi Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
ATL -131 -1.5 O 9.5 (-107)
NYM +110 +1.5 U 9.5 (-114)

Braves vs. Mets Projected Lineup

 

Batting Order Position
Ronald Acuña Jr. 1 RF
Ozzie Albies 2 2B
Austin Riley 3 3B
Matt Olson 4 1B
Sean Murphy 5 C
Marcell Ozuna 6 DH
Eddie Rosario 7 LF
Orlando Arcia 8 SS
Michael Harris II 9 CF
Yonny Chirinos SP

 

Batting Order Position
Brandon Nimmo 1 CF
Francisco Lindor 2 SS
Jeff McNeil 3 2B
Pete Alonso 4 1B
Daniel Vogelbach 5 DH
Mark Vientos 6 3B
Francisco Alvarez 7 C
Rafael Ortega 8 LF
DJ Stewart 9 RF
Kodai Senga SP

 

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Atlanta Braves: 75-41 SU / OU 63-49 / Runline 61-55
New York Mets: 52-65 SU / OU 48-63 / Runline 43-74

The Braves take on the Mets in the middle of a three game winning streak and are leading the NL East on an overall record of 75-41. So far, they are 38-21 on the road and 37-20 at home. Atlanta’s overall series record stands at 24-9-3.

 

  • The Braves have covered the runline in three straight games and have a season-long run margin of 1.7.
  • The Braves have been favored in 88.8% of their games and have runline records of 29-28 and 32-27 at home and on the road, respectively
  • The over has hit in 56% of the Braves’ 116 games at 63-49.

Heading into their game vs. the Braves, the Mets have a record of 52-65 and have dropped three straight games. In the NL East, they are in 4th place and have an overall series record of 13-19-5. At home, they have gone 28-27 and 24-38 on the road.

 

  • The Mets have three straight losses vs. the runline and have a season-long run margin of -0.5.
  • The Mets have been favored in 62.4% of their games and have runline records of 22-33 and 21-41 at home and on the road, respectively
  • So far, the Mets have an over/under record of just 48-63.

Pitching Matchup

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Yonny Chirinos 18 7 76 5-4 4.83 1.32 14

 

Yonny Chirinos has an overall record of 5-4, and will get the start for the Braves. With 18 appearances, his ERA currently stands at 4.83, while his K/9 figure is 5.19. Additionally, he has a FIP of 5.60 and an OBP of .316.

In his most recent outing, Yonny Chirinos faced the Pirates and allowed six runs on seven hits across five innings. Although he didn’t get the win or the loss, his team, the Braves, won the game by a score of 8-6.

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Kodai Senga 21 21 116 8-6 3.24 1.30 11

 

Kodai Senga heads into the game with an overall record of 8-6 and an ERA of 3.24. In his 10 appearances on the road, he has an ERA of 4.57 and record of 4-4. At home, he has put together a mark of 4-2 and ERA of 2.88. His season-long WHIP stands at 1.30, accompanied by a batting average allowed of .210. Teams facing him have amassed a slugging percentage of .321.

In his last outing, Kodai Senga finished with a quality start and picked up the win in a 11-2 victory over the Cubs. Senga gave up two runs and seven hits across six innings.

Braves vs. Mets Offense Outlook

The Braves are making their mark in the power department with a total of 225 home runs (1st). They are currently averaging 5.8 runs per game overall, with a collective batting average of .275. When playing on the road, their slugging percentage is .462 compared to .513 at home.

Atlanta Braves Top Bats

BA OBP SLG RBI HR SB
Ronald Acuña Jr. .336 .422 .575 71 26 54
Matt Olson .270 .379 .614 105 42 1
Ozzie Albies .269 .327 .518 90 28 11

 

Atlanta Braves Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Ozzie Albies .403 11 6 2 .653
Matt Olson .305 8 7 3 .639
Austin Riley .375 10 6 2 .683
Ronald Acuña Jr. .292 7 7 1 .486
Michael Harris II .403 9 7 0 .444

 

With 118 games under their belt, the Mets are ranked 21st in the league at 4.3 runs per game. New York has gone deep 144 times, ranking them 10th in home runs. Their overall batting average is .235, .231 on the road, and .222 at home.

New York Mets Top Hitters vs. Righties

Player BA HR SLG WOBA
Francisco Lindor .249 13 .461 .350
Jeff McNeil .251 5 .357 .301
Brandon Nimmo .237 15 .446 .347
Pete Alonso .222 24 .516 .358
Starling Marte .238 4 .317 .274

 

New York Mets Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Pete Alonso .150 2 3 2 .600
Jeff McNeil .300 6 3 1 .500
Daniel Vogelbach .292 3 1 1 .542
Brandon Nimmo .487 5 0 0 .613
Rafael Ortega .117 2 0 0 .117

 

Free MLB Pick

The New York Mets have scored 3 runs over their last 28 innings. The Atlanta Braves have won three in a row and five of their last six games. Atlanta scored 27 runs yesterday over two games, including one game in which they scored 21 times, granted, position player Danny Mendick came in to get gouged for an 8-spot in the ninth inning.

Coming of a double header, I could see these teams being tired. With the Mets not hitting much lately and the Braves having to face an above average pitcher in Kodai Senga, Sunday Night Baseball could be a very low scoring and boring game where it easily goes UNDER 9.5 runs.

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