MLB Best Bet: Brewers vs. Dodgers Runline Pick

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Date: Friday, July 5th, 10:10 ET
Location: Dodger Stadium
TV: MLBN
Money Line: Brewers +168/Dodgers -200
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Brewers on Friday, July 5th at Dodger Stadium. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 10:10 PM ET, the Brewers and Dodgers face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -200. The money line odds for the Brewers are at +168. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

Milwaukee comes in with a record of 52-36, and they are currently 1st in the NL Central, while the Dodgers are 1st in the NL West with a record of 53-35. The Brewers will start Aaron Civale, while the Dodgers are set to go with Tyler Glasnow. MLBN will be televising Friday’s matchup.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Milwaukee Brewers: 52-36 SU / OU 46-38 / Runline 46-42
Los Angeles Dodgers: 53-35 SU / OU 46-42 / Runline 43-45

Brewers Records & Recent Play

The Brewers will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rockies with a 4-3 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 4th inning before the Rockies scored two runs in the bottom of the 4th. Milwaukee was the -136 favorite on the money line going into the game.

Tobias Myers had a rough outing, giving up four earned runs on eight hits and issuing one walk. He also hit a batter and took the loss. The Brewers’ offense scored their three runs on eight hits but didn’t have a home run.

Milwaukee heads into today’s road matchup vs. the Dodgers with a record of 52-36, which has them leading the NL Central by six games over the Cardinals. So far, they have gone 20-10 against other teams in the NL Central. The Brewers are coming off a series split vs. the Rockies and have gone 7-3 across their last ten games.

As for how they have fared on the road, the Brewers are 25-23 compared to a 27-13 mark at home. Milwaukee has been good as the underdog this year, going 21-18 overall, and they have won two straight as the underdog. Their overall series record is 17-8-3 this year.

When the Brewers win, they do so by an average of 3.3 runs per game. When they lose, they lose by an average of -2.7 runs per game. They are 46-42 on the run line this season, including a 26-22 mark on the road. They have covered the run line in two straight games as the underdog and are 26-13 against the run line in those games this season.

The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The O/U line is set at 8 runs, which is below the combined run average of 8.7 runs per game for these teams. The Brewers have a 46-38 O/U record on the season, and when the line has been set at 8 runs, their O/U record is 6-6-1. Overall, 60.2% of their games have had higher O/U lines than 8 runs, and their current O/U streak is 3 games to the under.

Dodgers Records & Recent Play

Led by a big game by Andy Pages at the plate, the Dodgers are coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. Pages went 2/4 with a run scored and three RBIs. The Dodgers really wasted a good start by Landon Knack, who took the loss, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up four earned runs. Los Angeles was also the -116 favorite at home going into the game.

The Diamondbacks scored nine runs on 12 hits and really broke things open with a four-run 3rd inning. Looking at the Dodgers going forward, they will need to get more production from their offense if they want to keep pace in the NL West. Going into the game, the Dodgers were in 2nd place, two games behind the Giants.

Los Angeles is hosting the Brewers today with an overall record of 53-35, good for 1st place in the NL West. Currently, they lead the Padres by 6.5 games for the division lead. The Dodgers come in having dropped two straight games, and this came after losing the final two games of their series vs. the Diamondbacks.

So far, the Dodgers have gone 18-15 in divisional games this season. As the favorite, the Dodgers are 51-31 this year, and they are 2-4 as the underdog. At home, the Dodgers are 25-18 and 27-17 on the road. Los Angeles’ series record is 17-12-1, but they have dropped two straight series.

The Dodgers have a run line record of 43-45 this season, including a 19-25 mark at home. Their average run margin is +1.2 runs per game, and they have a +0.9 run differential at home. They are 24-20 against the run line on the road, where they have a +1.5 run differential. They have failed to cover the run line in their last three home games and are 41-41 against the run line as the favorite this season.

When the Dodgers are at home, the over has hit in 70.5% of their games, and their games have averaged 8.9 runs per contest. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 8 runs, and the over has hit in six straight games for Los Angeles.

Pitching Matchup

Right-hander Aaron Civale gets the start for the Brewers today as he faces the Dodgers on the road. He has made 17 starts this season and has a record of 2-6 with a 5.07 ERA. Civale’s WHIP for the season is 1.38, and he has turned in three quality starts. In his last outing, Civale took the loss, giving up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without taking the loss. Civale has allowed a home run in each of his last three outings.

So far this season, Tyler Glasnow has made 17 starts and has a record of 8-5. His ERA for the season is 3.23, along with a WHIP of .93. In his 17 appearances, Glasnow has turned in 11 quality starts. Looking at his overall numbers, Glasnow has a strikeouts per nine innings figure of 11.88. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up five earned runs in three innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts without giving up a run.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Offense Outlook

So far this season, the Brewers have been a good offensive team, averaging 4.8 runs per game (9th) and batting .257 as a team, which is the 4th best mark in the league. They have also been very good at getting on base, with a team OBP of .333, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. As a team, they are 4th in home runs and have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per game.

Willy Adames and William Contreras have been the Brewers’ top power threats this season, with Adames leading the team with 13 homers and Contreras right behind him with 10. Adames is also 11th in the league with 56 RBIs. Rhys Hoskins has 11 homers but is batting just .217 for the season. However, he has been swinging a better bat of late, going 9/20 in his last five games.

Shohei Ohtani has been one of the best hitters in the league this season, batting .316 with 27 home runs and 64 RBIs. Ohtani has been even better of late, going 9/30 in his last eight games with four homers and six RBIs. Teoscar Hernandez is also a big power threat for the Dodgers, as he has 19 homers and 59 RBIs this season while batting .257.

Los Angeles comes into the game as one of the league’s best offenses, averaging five runs per game. They are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league and have the best on-base percentage in the league. Overall, the Dodgers are 2nd in team OPS and are batting a collective .255.

Free Brewers vs. Dodgers MLB Pick

The Brewers will be giving their newest addition Aaron Civale the ball on Friday vs. the Dodgers. Los Angeles is heavily favored, and not only do I see them winning this one, but I like them to cover the run line. Despite leading their division, the Brewers just don’t measure up to the other top teams in the NL. Plus, they just split their series vs. Colorado. I like Los Angeles at -1.5 runs.