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Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick

by | Last updated Apr 23, 2019 | mlb

Xach Davies Milwaukee Brewers Starting Pitcher

Milwaukee Brewers (13-11) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (13-9), 4/23/19
Time: 7:45 pm ET
Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Listed Pitchers: Zach Davies (2-0, 1.19 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) vs. Daniel Ponce de Leon (NA)
TV: FS Wisconsin, FS Midwest

Moneyline: Cardinals -125/Brewers +115 (5Dimes)
Over/Under: 8.5

St. Louis took Game 1 of this three-game series with Milwaukee at Busch Stadium Monday night with help from a late offensive explosion against the Brewers bullpen. Can the Cardinals extend their winning streak to four Tuesday night? And who do we like for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Tuesday’s MLB betting odds opened St. Louis and Ponce de Leon at around -130 over Milwaukee and Davies, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line to -125.

The Cardinals could also be found getting around +145 giving the run and a half on the run line.

Brewers vs. Cardinals Set-Up

St. Louis won the opener of this series Monday night 13-5, cashing tickets as a -145 favorite on the MLB money line and covering against the run line at a price of +140. The Cardinals grabbed an early 3-0 lead, let the Brewers tie the game at 3-3, then broke it open with seven runs in the bottom of the seventh inning.

Also, as the teams combined to hit six home runs, Monday’s game played over a total of 8.5 runs.

With Monday’s victory St. Louis now owns a three-game winning streak.

With Monday’s defeat the Brew Crew is now just 1-5 over its last six games.

At 13-9 overall St. Louis is now tied with 12-8 Pittsburgh for first place in the NL Central, one game up on 13-11 Milwaukee.

The Brewers lead the season series with the Cardinals five games to three.

Tuesday’s Starting Arms

Ponce de Leon is getting this start Tuesday night in place of Michael Wacha, who just ended up on the disabled list.

Last year Ponce de Leon posted a 2.73 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 11 appearances and 33 innings with St. Louis, with 31 strikeouts against 13 walks. Then at Spring Training this year he seemed a little lost, putting up an 8.80 ERA in 15 1/3 innings. But he then earned the call-up by going 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three starts at Triple-A Memphis earlier this month.

In his only career appearance against Milwaukee last August Ponce de Leon tossed one perfect inning of relief.

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Davies is only one-for-four on quality starts this year but that’s only because of a short leash. Last Thursday he held the Dodgers scoreless on three hits through five innings, although Milwaukee lost that game 3-1. And just before that he held those same Dodgers to one run through seven innings. Over his his last three starts Davies has allowed just three runs – one earned – and 16 hits through 17 2/3 innings.

The Brewers are 3-1 with Davies this season.

However, in two starts last year against St. Louis Davies got rocked for 11 ER and 16 hits, including three homers, through 10 2/3 innings. Milwaukee lost both those games.

Tuesday’s Batting Splits

Milwaukee is batting .244/.324/.458 against right-handed pitching this season.

St. Louis is batting .281/.354/.488 against RH pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least six runs seven times in the last 11 games.

The Bullpens

After giving up eight runs in four innings of work Monday night the Milwaukee bullpen now owns a 4.82 ERA on the season, with a 1.33 WHIP and a 97/46 strikeouts/walks ratio. So it’s becoming obvious this unit is nowhere near as effective as the bullpen that helped the Brewers reach the NLCS last year.

The St. Louis bullpen owns a 3.32 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and a 92/44 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

  • The unders are 13-10 in Brewers games this season.
  • The overs are 14-6 in Cardinals games this season.
  • The unders are 4-0 in Davies’ starts this season.
  • The overs are 7-3 in games played at Busch Stadium this season.
  • The overs are 5-2 in Brewers-Cardinals games this season.

Free MLB Pick

St. Louis is going in a good way, Milwaukee, not so much. And that Brewers bullpen reeks of gasoline. We’re going with the Cardinals for our free MLB pick for Tuesday.

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