Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Pick 8/27/21

Milwaukee Brewers (78-50) vs. Minnesota Twins (55-72)
When: 8:10 p.m., Friday, August 27
Where: Target Field, Minneapolis
Moneyline: MIL -135/MIN +115
Runline: Brewers -1.5/Twins +1.5
Total: 9.5

Starting Pitchers: Eric Lauer (4-4, 3.59 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs. Andrew Albers (0-0, 2.25 ERA, 0.75 WHIP)

Different Directions

On one side, the Brewers already know that as long as they don’t make a massive pratfall over the final month of the season, they’re going to be in the postseason. The Twins, on the other hand, are already playing for next year and have been since before the All-Star break. As such, they’re focusing on what they need to improve on for 2022 rather than getting anything done right now.
One of the biggest areas where they seem to need improvement is run prevention because Minnesota has been incredibly generous in the field as of late. Over their past seven contests, the Twins have conceded 60 runs and haven’t given up less than six in a game.

Not surprisingly, the over has cashed in six of Minnesota’s past seven games because the Twins’ opponents are often hitting the number entirely on their own. Despite the fact that all but one of their past seven games had a total of 9.5 or higher, the Twins have cashed all of them easily (and the one push was the one game that had a low total, as Minnesota only managed to score once against the Yankees in a 7-1 loss). That might not happen against the Brewers, who have really struggled at the plate, but so had the Indians and Yankees, and the Twins couldn’t stop either of them.

Brief Cameos

When Eric Lauer takes the ball, he usually does enough to get the job done for Milwaukee. However, he hasn’t been doing enough to eat many innings, as he’s not pitched past the fifth inning in any of his past five trips to the hill. It hasn’t hurt the Brewers because they’ve been able to count on their bullpen to do the rest, as they’ve won in Lauer’s past four starts.
What’s also helped is that when Lauer pitches at home, the offense has made sure to back him up. The Brewers have had their problems getting the bats going at times, but when Lauer pitches in Wisconsin, the offense has been there for him, producing 35 runs in his past four home starts. Granted, those came against terrible opponents in the Rockies, Cubs, Pirates, and Nationals…but the Twins have certainly fit that billing themselves.

Late Call-Up

Here’s a sign of how little this game means to the Twins: Andrew Albers taking the ball. Albers is the classic 4A player, good enough to pitch well and have a long career at the Triple-A level, not quite good enough to stick in the majors. He’s spent most of the past four seasons in Triple-A and has been there for most of 2021 before the Twins decided to call him up with 2021 completely lost.

However, Albers is not what you would call a hot prospect. He’s not a prospect at all, as he’ll turn 36 in October. This is the case of an organization giving a hard-working, decent guy a chance to make major-league money for a month when they don’t have a strong prospect who they think is ready for the major leagues that they need to see before next season. Albers pitched well in his first assignment of 2021, but the odds are that it’s not going to happen a second time.

Betting Trends

• The Brewers are 8-2 in their past ten series openers.
• The Brewers are 20-6 in their past 26 games as a road favorite.
• The Twins are 7-19 in their past 26 games against a left-handed starter.
• The Twins are 8-3 in their past 11 games after a loss.
• The under is 3-0-2 in the Brewers’ past five interleague games.
• The under is 15-4-2 in the Brewers’ past 21 games following a loss.
• The over is 5-0-1 in the Twins’ past six games following a loss.
• The over is 4-0 in the Twins’ past four against the NL Central.
• The Twins have won five of seven against Milwaukee.
• The under is 5-1 in the past six meetings in Minnesota.

Weather Report

Don’t be surprised if this one gets delayed, as heavy rain is forecast for the first pitch on Friday in Minneapolis. If it gets played, the teams will deal with 96% humidity on a 74-degree night, with the wind blowing in from right-center at eight miles per hour.

Dan’s pick

The Twins are playing out the string, and I don’t expect Albers to throw two strong games in a row. Minnesota has problems with lefties, and Milwaukee is in a prime bounce-back spot after tripping up against the Reds on Thursday. Give me the Brewers.