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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick 4/13/19

by | Apr 13, 2019 | mlb

Xach Davies Milwaukee Brewers Starting Pitcher

Milwaukee Brewers (9-5) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (8-7) 4/13/19
Time: 9:10 pm ET
Where: Dodgers Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Listed Pitchers: Caleb Ferguson (LA) vs. Zach Davies (Mil)
TV: FS Wisconsin, SportsNet LA

Moneyline: NA (Bookmaker)
Over/Under: NA

The Los Angeles Dodgers outlasted the Milwaukee Brewers in seven games in the NLCS last season, but the Brew Crew took the first meeting between the teams this season Friday night. Who do we like for our free MLB pick on Saturday’s night’s game?

MLB Betting Odds

As of this writing, Saturday’s MLB betting odds were holding off on lining this game, as the Dodgers contemplated their pitching situation. This is Hyun-Jin Ryu’s spot in the starting rotation, but he’s on the DL with a pulled groin. So it looks like LA is going with the “opener” philosophy for Saturday night.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Set-Up

Milwaukee took the opener of this series Friday night 8-5, cashing in as +135 dogs on the MLB betting line. The Brewers scored twice in the top of the first inning to take an early lead, trailed 5-4 after four, then scored the last four runs of the game for the victory.

Also, Friday’s game played over a total of eight runs.

Friday’s victory snapped a three-game losing streak for Milwaukee.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, now owns a five-game losing streak, after getting swept four games in St. Louis earlier this week.

Last year the Dodgers took the regular-season series from the Brewers four games to three, then, as mentioned above, took the NLCS four games to three.

Saturday’s Starting Arms

It looks like Los Angeles is going with “innings by committee” strategy Saturday, starting with lefty Ferguson (0-0, 0.00). Over seven relief appearances, so far this season Ferguson has allowed no runs, five hits, and one walk, with eight strikeouts, through a total of 6 1/3 innings. Last time out he threw 1 1/3 innings against the Cardinals Tuesday, allowing no runs on one hit, with two whiffs.

In six appearances last year against Milwaukee, including four in the NLCS, Ferguson tossed 5 1/3 innings of scoreless ball, allowing just one hit and two walks.

Davies (1-0, 1.69) is 0/2 on quality starts this season, but that’s only because of a short leash. Twelve days ago he held Cincinnati to two runs and four hits through five innings of a 4-3 Brewers win. And last Sunday he gave up two unearned runs and five hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 4-2 Milwaukee victory over the Cubs. So the Brewers are 2-0 with Davies this season, with the unders going 2-0.

Davies missed the Dodgers last season, even in the playoffs. In two starts against LA in 2017 Davies threw 13 innings of scoreless ball, with 13 strikeouts.

More MLB Predictions: Saturday’s Mets at Braves Pick

Saturday’s Batting Splits

Milwaukee is batting .333/.400/.608 against left-handed pitching this season.

Los Angeles is batting .293/.386/.567 against right-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

After throwing 4 2/3 innings of scoreless ball Friday night, the Brewers bullpen now owns a 4.70 ERA this season, with a 1.26 WHIP and a 52/24 strikeouts/walks ratio. Also, new closer Josh Hader gave up two hits and a walk in 1 1/3 innings of work Friday night, throwing a total of 38 pitches, so we’re wondering if his availability for Saturday might be limited.

After giving up two runs and six hits through four innings of work Friday night, the Dodgers bullpen now owns a 5.16 ERA this season, with a 1.34 WHIP and a 54/18 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

  • The unders are 7-6-1 in Brewers games this season.
  • The overs are 11-4 in Dodgers games this season.
  • The overs are 7-1 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season, which seems like a trend due to turn on itself at any time.
  • The overs finished 4-3 in Brewers-Dodgers games last season, but the unders went 4-2-1 in the NLCS.

Free MLB Pick

We like what we see out of Davies so far this season, and we’re giving Milwaukee short edges in the batting splits and the bullpen comparison. So we’re betting the Brew Crew for the win Saturday, regardless of the betting line.

Take the Milwaukee Brewers

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