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Milwaukee Brewers vs LA Dodgers Pick

by | Last updated Apr 12, 2019 | mlb

Julio Urias LAD Starter

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
Time: 10:10 pm ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Listed Pitchers: Corbin Burnes (Mil) vs. Julio Urias (LAD)
TV: SNLA, KTLA, Fox Sports Wisconsin
Moneyline: Brewers +120/Dodgers -145 (Intertops) 
Over/Under: 8

Both teams come in struggling after getting swept in their previous series, as the Brewers dropped three to the Angels while the Dodgers lost three straight in St. Louis. Can Milwaukee salvage its road trip to Hollywood, or will Los Angeles continue the mastery of Milwaukee it showed in last year’s National League Championship Series?

MLB Betting Odds

The line has shifted toward the Brewers since opening at -164 for the Dodgers. It has settled at -145, in large part because of the Dodgers’ 5-2 mark on the season at home. The over-under is 10-4 for the over in Dodgers games this season and has remained at its starting point of 8.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Set-Up

These teams played a classic seven-game NLCS last season, with the Dodgers winning their second consecutive pennant. Most of the same players from last year’s squads are back with both teams, and memories are sharp on both sides of how this series ended. One of the few players who has changed sides is catcher Yasmani Grandal, who now plays for the Brewers and could be an X-factor with his firsthand knowledge of Los Angeles pitching.

Friday’s Starting Arms

To say that Corbin Burnes (0-1, 9.90) got roughed up in his last start is a little like saying Auburn basketball coach Bruce Pearl didn’t enjoy the final 10 seconds of his team’s gut-wrenching Final Four loss to Virginia. Burnes only gave up six hits to the Cubs, but when he got hit, he got whacked hard, as Chicago tagged him for seven runs in five innings of a 14-8 drubbing. What Burnes does bring to the table is his ability to miss bats. In his first start against St. Louis, he fanned 12 Cardinals and got a no-decision in a 5-4 win. If he’s missing bats, he’s going to be effective. If he’s not, he’s going to get lit up.

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The Dodgers will send out Urias (0-0, 3.12) as his opponent. Urias has pitched decently in his first two starts, holding the Giants scoreless in five innings but struggling to get through under four innings at Colorado. He’ll be helped by pitching at home again, as he’s a fly ball pitcher who needs the deep confines of Dodger Stadium to help him get through his starts. His trip to Colorado bordered on disaster because fly ball pitchers tend to get lit up at Coors Field, but at sea level in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, he’s a pretty effective hurler.

Friday’s Batting Splits

The Dodgers can score. Or can they? Los Angeles ranks second only to Seattle in runs scored, but part of that came from getting to play Arizona (who the Dodgers tagged for 42 runs in four games) and at Colorado (where balls leave the yard in a hurry and the Dodgers put up 29 runs in three contests). Against San Francisco and St. Louis, things didn’t come as easily. Los Angeles scored just 12 runs in four losses to the Cardinals, a number they reached in two of their four games against Arizona. Scoring hasn’t been a problem for Milwaukee regardless of the opponent, as they’ve scored at least four runs in all but three games this year. However, the Brewers might be in a slump, as two of the three instances where they failed to score four came against the Angels earlier in the week.

The Bullpens

When you turn your game over to the bullpen, you want to be able to count on your guys to get the job done. That hasn’t been what’s happened here. The Dodgers and Brewers both have an ERA over 5 for their respective bullpens, and the Dodgers in particular have to be alarmed about their bullpen, which has already blown three save opportunities this year.

Totals Report 

  • The under is 10-1-1 in Milwaukee’s past 12 road games.
  • The over is 6-1 in the Dodgers’ past 7 home games.
  • The over is 6-0-1 in the Brewers’ past seven games when they scored two runs or fewer in the previous game.
  • The under is 8-2-1 in the teams’ past 11 meetings in Los Angeles.
  • The under is 4-1-1 in the teams’ past six meetings.

Free MLB Pick

There’s one odd factor at play here: Milwaukee didn’t have to travel at all for this series. While the Dodgers were off in St. Louis losing to the Cardinals on Thursday, the Brewers were sitting in their hotels in Los Angeles, having already spent the past three days in southern California to play the Angels. With the Dodgers coming across two time zones and the Brewers coming 30 miles north up Interstate 5 (which might have taken just as long as the Dodgers’ flight from Missouri, if we’re being honest), Milwaukee should be the more rested team for this game. When two teams are struggling like these two are, any little bit helps. I’m taking the Brewers here.

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