Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Free Picks & Analysis 5/18/24

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Date: Saturday, May 18th, 7:10 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: BSWI
Money Line: Brewers +131/Astros -154
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Houston Astros and the Brewers on Saturday, May 18th at Minute Maid Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

	ML	RL	Total
MIL	+131	+1.5	O 8.5 (-113)
HOU	-154	-1.5	U 8.5 (-107)

At 7:10 PM ET, the Brewers and Astros will face off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Minute Maid Park in Houston, and the Astros are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -154. The money line odds for a Brewers win are at +131, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs.

Justin Verlander will be on the mound for the Astros, while the Brewers are starting Bryse Wilson. Milwaukee is currently 1st in the NL Central, and they have a record of 26-18, while the Astros are 3rd in the AL West at 20-25 and are riding a 6-game winning streak. BSWI is carrying this game on TV.

Brewers vs. Astros Projected Lineup

Player	Batting Order	Position
Brice Turang	1	2B
William Contreras	2	C
Christian Yelich	3	LF
Willy Adames	4	SS
Jake Bauers	5	1B
Sal Frelick	6	RF
Gary Sánchez	7	DH
Joey Ortiz	8	3B
Blake Perkins	9	CF
Bryse Wilson	–	SP

Player	Batting Order	Position
Jose Altuve	1	2B
Kyle Tucker	2	RF
Yordan Alvarez	3	DH
Jeremy Peña	4	SS
Jon Singleton	5	1B
Alex Bregman	6	3B
Yainer Diaz	7	C
Joey Loperfido	8	LF
Mauricio Dubón	9	CF
Justin Verlander	–	SP

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Milwaukee Brewers: 26-18 SU / OU 27-17 / Runline 22-22
Houston Astros: 20-25 SU / OU 17-25 / Runline 19-26

It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Astros vs Brewers series. Houston went into the matchup as slight underdogs at -104 and squeaked out a 5-4 win. Milwaukee had a chance to tie or win the game in the 9th inning but could only muster one run.

Much of the Astros’ offense came in the 2nd and 5th innings. They scored two runs in the 2nd and added three more in the 5th. As for the Brewers, they scored one run in the 4th and added three more in the 5th, but couldn’t push across another run after that.

Hunter Brown got the win for the Astros, going five innings and giving up four runs. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued three walks. Josh Hader closed things out. Freddy Peralta had a rough outing for the Brewers, taking the loss.

Brewers Records & Recent Play

The Brewers hold a two-game lead over the Cubs for the NL Central lead, and they are 26-18 overall this season. Milwaukee is 13-7 against other teams in the NL Central. So far, they have gone 12-9 at home and have been slightly better on the road, going 14-9.

As the road underdog, the Brewers have been good this year, putting together a record of 10-5. They have also been good as the favorite or the underdog, as their record is 13-9 in both situations. Currently, they are on a two-game losing streak on the road, and overall, they are 8-4-2 in series this year.

When the Brewers are on the road, they have been a good bet on the run line, going 14-9. Their average run margin is +1.3 runs per game when they are away from home. They have covered the run line in three of their last five road games, but they have failed to cover in their last two.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with a combined run average of 9.4 runs per game. Their over/under record is 27-17, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. When their over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, the over has hit in 16 of 23 games. They have gone over in their last two games, with a combined 21 runs scored in those contests.

Astros Records & Recent Play

The Astros are currently 3rd in the AL West, four games behind the Mariners for the division lead. They will host the Brewers today with an overall record of 20-25, having won six straight games. Houston’s six-game winning streak has come with an 9-5 record against other AL West teams.

So far, the Astros have been good at closing out series, as they are 6-7-1 overall and have won two straight series. Looking at how they have fared as the favorite, the Astros are 15-19 and 5-6 as the underdog. At home, they have won five straight as the favorite and are 11-9 as the favorite overall.

When it comes to the run line, the Astros have been a better bet at home this season, going 11-13 compared to 8-13 on the road. They have won three straight run line bets at home and are 13-21 overall when favored.

When the Astros play at home, the over has hit in 57.8% of their games, and their average combined run total is 9.3. Their over/under record is 17-25, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over in 4 of 11 games. Overall, the average over/under line for their games this season has been 9 runs.

Pitching Matchup

Right-hander Bryse Wilson is getting the start for the Brewers today as he faces the Astros on the road. Wilson has made five starts this year and has a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 2.65. So far, he has made two quality starts and is averaging 7.41 strikeouts per nine innings. Wilson’s WHIP for the season is 1.12. In his most recent outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had not given up more than one earned run in three straight outings.

Justin Verlander will be making his third start of the season, and he has been solid in his first two outings. He picked up a win in his last start, going 7 innings and striking out 8 while allowing just 2 hits. In his first start of the season, he took a loss to the Yankees, giving up 7 runs in 5 innings.

Brewers vs. Astros Offense Outlook

William Contreras has been swinging a hot bat for the Brewers of late, going 14/30 in his last eight games. He also has 34 RBIs for the season, which is good for 5th in the league. His six homers is 3rd on the team and 8th in the MLB. Jake Bauers and Joey Ortiz have also been swinging the bat well, with Bauers hitting three homers in his last six games, and Ortiz has gone 10/27 in his last eight games.

Overall, the Brewers are the 3rd highest-scoring team in the league at 5.2 runs per game. They have been even better at home, also averaging 5.2 runs per game. Not only do they have a good team batting average, but they are also near the top of the league in on-base percentage and slugging.

Heading into today’s game, the Astros are the league’s top-scoring offense, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. The Astros have also been the league’s best hitting team so far, with a team batting average of .262. As a team, they are also the league’s top home run hitting team.

Kyle Tucker has been on a tear of late, going 9/22 in his last seven games, with two homers and four RBIs. For the season, he is batting .288 with a league-leading 13 home runs. Jose Altuve is also having a strong season, hitting .311 with seven homers. Alex Bregman has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/31 in his last eight games.

Free Brewers vs. Astros MLB Pick

Our prediction for today’s Brewers vs. Astros matchup is that the Astros will pick up a 6-5 win. With the payout for an Astros win sitting at -154, this is the bet we recommend making.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Justin Verlander finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Bryse Wilson with just three. Wilson is also projected to go six innings, while Verlander is projected to go eight.

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