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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Pick

by Darin Zank | Last updated May 12, 2019 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers (24-17) vs. Chicago Cubs (23-14), 5/12/19
Time: May 12, 7:05 pm ET
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Listed Pitchers: Jhoulys Chacin (3-3, 5.03 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) vs. Jon Lester (2-1, 1.41, 1.03)
TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Cubs -140/Brewers +130 (Bookmaker)

After splitting the first two games of this three-game series, and playing a marathon on Saturday, the Brewers and Cubs meet for a rubber match Sunday under the lights at Wrigley Field. How are we playing this game for our free MLB pick for Sunday?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened Chicago and Lester at around -145 over Milwaukee and Chacin. Early betting action then dipped that spread about a nickel, to around -140.

Brewers vs. Cubs Set-Up

Milwaukee took the opener of this series Friday afternoon 7-0 but Chicago outlasted the Brewers Saturday afternoon 2-1 in 15 innings. Both teams scored one run in the fifth inning Saturday, and neither scored again until Cub catcher Wilson Contreras bombed a solo home run off Milwaukee reliever Burch Smith with one out in the bottom of the 15th for the win.

The Brewers won Friday as +115 underdogs on the MLB betting line, while Chicago won Saturday as a -120 favorite.

Also, both games in this series played under totals of 7.5.

Saturday’s loss snapped a seven-game winning streak for Milwaukee.

Meanwhile, with Saturday’s victory Chicago is 11-2 over its last 13 games.

At 23-14 overall the Cubs lead the NL Central by one game over the 24-17 Brewers.

Milwaukee leads the season series with Chicago three games to two.

Read: Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Game 7 Prediction!

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Lester is 4/6 on quality starts this season, and three outs away from being three for his last three. Tuesday he held Miami to two unearned runs on eight hits through six innings of a 5-2 Cubs victory, and over his last three starts he’s allowed just one earned run and 13 hits through 18 innings, with 19 strikeouts against just one walk.

On the season Chicago is 4-2 with Lester.

In two starts last year against the Brewers Lester allowed three runs and 11 hits through 11 2/3 innings. The Cubs split those two games.

Chacin, by our strict standards, is just 1/8 on quality starts this season, but he’s been pretty good his last couple times out. Monday he held Washington to two runs and three hits through five frames of a 5-3 Milwaukee victory, and just before that he tossed six innings of two-hit, shutout ball against Colorado.

On the season the Brewers are 4-4 with Chacin, 2-0 over his last two starts.

In five starts last year against Chicago, including a solid effort in the one-game playoff that decided the NL Central title, Chacin allowed just five ER and 16 hits through 28 1/3 innings, with 30 strikeouts. Milwaukee won three of those five games.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

Milwaukee is batting .256/.334/.471 against left-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least five runs in four of its last five games.

Chicago is batting .260/.355/.455 against right-handed pitching this season. But this lineup has also scored a total of nine runs over its last four games.

The Bullpens

The Brewers bullpen, which has allowed just one run through 11 innings of work in this series, owns a 3.96 ERA this season and a 1.24 WHIP.

The Cubs pen, which has allowed three ER through 10 1/3 innings of work in this series, owns a 3.87 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.

Totals Report

Unders are 24-16 in Brewers games this season.

Overs are 20-17 in Cubs games this season.

Unders are 12-8 in games played at the Friendly Confines this season.

Unders are 3-2 in Brewers-Cubs games this season.

Unders are 6-2 with Chacin this season.

Overs are 5-1 with Lester this season, but that’s mostly thanks to some good run support.

Free MLB Pick

Chicago and Lester own the edge in Sunday’s pitching match-up, but most other factors even out. So we see betting value with Milwaukee and this line. So we’re going with the Brewers and the underdog price for our free MLB pick for Sunday.