Milwaukee Brewers (42-34) Dave Bush +105, 9.5 O/U at Atlanta
Braves (38-40) Charlie Morton -125, 8.5 O/U, Turner Field, 7:05 PM
EST, Tuesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
Young Atlanta Braves right-hander Charlie Morton is faced with a pivotal start Tuesday night versus the Milwaukee Brewers in game two
of a three-game set at Turner Field.
Morton not only has to handle the pressure of just his third start in the major leagues against a hot Brewers lineup that has gone 7-3 in
their last 10 games, but he has to help the Braves try and save-face
after getting game one of the series shoved up their collective you-
know-whats.
The Brewers won the opener Monday when Ben Sheets dominated, period.
Sheets threw a four-hit complete-game gem and retired the last 16
Braves hitters straight in Milwaukees 4-1 victory. Now the Brewers
turn to Dave Bush, who carried a no-hitter into the 8th inning in his
last start (a 8-7 win over Toronto), to try to give them another
quality start (nine of the last 11 Brewers starters have gone at
least six innings) in game two Tuesday.
The early line at most offshore sportsbooks have the Braves as -125 on the moneyline, with Milwaukee as slight +105 underdogs at most
places but as high as +115 at the Las Vegas Hilton and 5Dimes. The
over/under opened at 9.5.
The clear task at hand for Morton is to be more like his first MLB
start (6 IP, 3R, 5H, 1BB) and less like his second start (5IP, 5H,
4BB but still only 3R). Hell have to get more control to stop a
Brewer offense that is hitting homeruns again (100 total 4th in MLB).
Bush on the other hand has had success versus the Braves in the past.
He has been solid in two previous starts (14 IP, 2 R for 1.93 ERA)
despite no decisions in either contest. The big question for Bush is
whether he figured something out when he flirted with a no-no last
time out, or if he will revert back to the guy who was getting lit up
(9 runs in 10 IP his previous two starts) and in danger of being
replaced in the rotation.
Bush will have the advantage of facing a Chipper Jones-less Atlanta
lineup, since the leagues leading hitter reinjured his quad and is
questionable for the entire series. Without Jones the Braves have
been struggling to score runs, as they have scored less than four
runs in nine of their last 10 games (5-5).
The one betting trend that jumps off the screen at you is the under.
Not only does Turner Field play to less runs (the under is 42-19-3 in
the last 64 overall), but all four of the head-to-head meetings
between the Brewers and Braves this season have stayed under the
total. The under has also been solid on Tuesdays as well, as the
9-2-1 record in the last 12 indicates.
Picking a side is harder, as the Braves still own one of the leagues best home records (36-15 in last 51), while the Brewers are one of
the hottest teams around right now with eight wins in their last 11
games including a 4-1 record in their last five away from Miller Park.
Badgers Pick: Early action has been all on the Braves, as the
moneyline has shot up to -135 for the Braves and +125 for the Brewers
already. With Bushs history versus the Braves, and the increased
odds due to heavy public money on Atlanta, Im taking the Brewers as
+125 underdogs here.