Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick 7/20/19

Milwaukee Brewers (51-48) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (50-48), 7/20/19
Time: 8:10 pm ET Saturday, July 20
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Listed Pitchers: Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Zack Greinke (10-4, 2.95, 0.95)
TV: FS Wisconsin, FS Arizona

Moneyline: Diamondbacks -140/Brewers +130 (BetNow)
Over/Under: 9

Heading into the third game of a four-game series out in the Phoenix, the Brewers and Diamondbacks are both trying to stay close in the playoff picture in the National League. Milwaukee took the opener of this series Thursday night, but Arizona grabbed Friday’s game. Which way are we going here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday’s MLB betting odds opened Arizona and Greinke at around -150 over Milwaukee and Gonzalez, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dipped that line about a dime, to around -140.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Set-Up

Milwaukee won the opener of this series Thursday night 5-1, but Arizona took Friday night’s contest 10-7. The Brewers won as -100 “underdogs” Thursday night while the Diamondbacks cashed in as +120 home dogs Friday night.

Friday’s loss snapped a three-game winning streak for Milwaukee. At 51-48 overall the Brewers trail the first-place Cubs by three games in the NL Central, and they’re just a half-game behind St. Louis and Philadelphia in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

With Friday’s win, Arizona is 3-1 over its last four games. At 50-48 overall the Diamondbacks trail the division-leading Dodgers by 14 games in the NL West but they’re also just one game off the pace in that scrum for the second NL wild-card slot.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year the Brew Crew took the season series from the D’Backs five games to one.

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Saturday’s Starting Arms

Greinke, by our strict standards, is 14/20 on quality starts this season, and two for his last three. Last Sunday he got nicked for five runs and eight hits through six innings of a 5-2 Arizona loss to the Cardinals. But in his two starts previous to that he held the Giants and Rockies scoreless on nine hits through 14 innings.

The Diamondbacks are 13-7 with Greinke this season, 3-1 over his last four starts.

In two starts last year against Milwaukee Greinke allowed five runs and nine hits over 12 innings. Arizona split those two games.

Lefty Gonzalez is coming off the DL to make his first start since May 27, when he gave up four runs in less than five innings of a 5-4 Brewers victory over Minnesota. On the season he’s 0/6 on quality starts, but some of that is due to a short leash; three times he’s pitched to within two outs of a QS only to get pulled.

Milwaukee is 4-2 with Gonzalez this season, and he can take some credit for that.

In his most recent start against the Diamondbacks, back in April of last season when he was still with Washington, Gonzalez allowed just one run through seven innings of a 3-1 Nationals victory.

Saturday’s Batting Splits

Milwaukee is batting .249/.330/.449 against right-handed pitching this season. The Brewers have also scored 30 runs over their last four games.

Arizona is batting .285/.340/.507 against left-handed pitching this season, which ranks this lineup among the top three in the Majors in this split. The Diamondbacks have also scored 39 runs over their last four games.

The Bullpens

The Brewers bullpen owns a 4.53 ERA this season and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .714 OPS.

The Diamondbacks pen owns a 4.38 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP while allowing a .747 OPS.

Totals Report

• Unders are 51-44 in Brewers games this season.
• Overs are 48-46 in Diamondbacks games this season.
• Unders are 23-18 in games played at Chase Field this season.
• Unders are a combined 17-9 when Greinke and Gonzalez start this season.

Free MLB Pick

Arizona gets our handicapping check-marks in both the pitching match-up and the splits with the sticks. So we’re going with the Diamondbacks for our free MLB pick for Saturday.