Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs Game 2 Pick

Miami Marlins (31-29) vs. Chicago Cubs (34-26), 10/2/20
Time: 2 pm ET Friday, Oct. 2
Where: Wrigley Field
TV: ABC
Listed Pitchers: Sixto Sanchez (3-2, 3.46) vs. Yu Darvish (8-3, 2.01)

Moneyline: Marlins +180/Cubs -200 (BAS)
Over/Under: NA

After taking the opener of this wild-card series Wednesday, the Marlins shoot to advance to the divisional round when these teams meet for Game 2 Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Miami began this series as a +160 underdog to win it, while Chicago was listed as a -200 favorite. Can the Marlins beat the Cubs again on their home turf? Can Chicago stay alive? And how are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB playoff betting odds opened Chicago and Darvish at around -205 over Miami and Sanchez while holding off on posting an over/under, as they so often so on games played at the Friendly Confines. Early betting action then dipped the Cubs to -200.

Chicago could also be found getting around +110, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Marlins vs. Cubs Game 2 Set-Up

Miami leads this best-of-three series one game to none, after taking Game 1 Wednesday 5-1. Thursday’s Game 2 was then postponed due to inclement weather.

Chicago led Wednesday’s game 1-0 through six innings, but the Marlins put up a five-spot in the top of the seventh, getting a three-run homer from Corey Dickerson and a two-run pop from Jesus Aguilar, and hung on from there for the victory and the cash as +150 underdogs on the MLB playoff betting line.

Also, Game 1 played under a total of 8.5 runs.

These teams did not meet during the regular season this year. Last year the Cubs took the season series from Miami six games to one.

Friday’s Starting Arms

Darvish is a very sharp 10/12 on quality starts this season Last Friday, he tossed seven innings of shutout ball, allowing just three hits and one walk, striking out five, in a 10-0 Cubs win over the White Sox. However, over his three starts previous to that, he gave up nine runs and 20 hits through 19 innings, although he also struck out 25 over that span.

The Cubs are 9-3 with Darvish this season, but only 2-2 over his last four starts. Also, of Chicago’s nine wins with Darvish, this year, seven came by at least two runs.

In two starts against Miami last year, Darvish allowed three runs and five hits through 9 2/3 innings, with 15 whiffs and ten walks. But the Cubs won both those games.

Rookie righty Sanchez is 4/7 on quality starts this year but 0 for his last two. Nine days ago, he gave up four runs on four hits and four walks through just three innings of a 9-4 Marlins loss to Atlanta. Before that, he gave up five runs and eight hits through four frames of a 5-0 loss to Washington.

On the season, Miami is 3-4 with Sanchez, but 0-2 over his last two starts. Perhaps the week of rest will help.

This will be Sanchez’ first-ever start against the Cubs.

Friday’s Batting Splits

Miami batted .235 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .318 team OBP and a .355 team slugging percentage. This lineup could be without Starling Marte (six HR, 27 RBI, 10 SB this season) after getting hit on the finger by a pitch Wednesday.

Chicago batted .229/.321/.414 vs. RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Marlins bullpen posted a 4.86 ERA this season and a 1.45 WHIP, along with a 2.00 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those “helped” this unit rank among the bottom half-dozen bullpens in Baseball. However, three Miami relievers combined to throw 2 1/3 innings of scoreless ball in the opener of this series.

The Cubs pen put up a 3.99 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season, along with a 2.87 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

• Miami played 20-14 on the road this season.
• Chicago played 19-14 at home this season.
• Miami played 24-17 against right-handed starters this season.
• Chicago played 27-22 vs. RH starters this season.
• The Cubs are 6-2 this season when favored by -180 or more.

Totals Report

• Overs played 32-27 in Marlins games this season.
• Unders played 30-29 in Cubs games this season.
• Unders played 17-12 in games played at Wrigley Field this season.
• Unders are a combined 12-7 when Darvish and Sanchez start this season.

Free MLB Pick

We gotta give Darvish the check-mark in the pitching match-up, and Chicago also owns edges in the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. But that price seems a bit steep. So we’ll take a chance and chase the better price by playing the Cubs against the run line.