Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Pick 9/21/20

Miami Marlins (28-25) vs. Atlanta Braves (31-22), 9/21/20

Time: 7:10 pm ET Monday, Sept. 21

Where: Stadium,

Listed Pitchers: Trevor Rogers (1-1, 6.00) vs. Huascar Ynoa (0-0, 5.30)

TV: FS Florida, FS Southeast

Moneyline: Marlins +165/Braves -180 (BetAnySports – If you got shutout of 5Dimes this is the replacement. They offer -105 odds on all sides and totals)

Over/Under: 9.5

The Marlins rank among the most pleasant surprises in Baseball this season, and they’ll continue their pursuit of a playoff spot when they begin a big four-game NL East series with the Braves in suburban Atlanta Monday night. Miami went off this season playing against an over/under wins total line of 24.5, and they’re already over that. Can they close ground on the first-place Braves in the divisional race? And how are we playing this game with our today’s free baseball pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened Atlanta and Ynoa at around -175 over Miami and Rogers, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Braves to -180.

Atlanta could also be found getting around +115, giving the run and a half on the MLB betting run line.

Marlins vs. Braves Set-Up

Miami just took three of five games from Washington over the weekend, splitting a doubleheader Sunday, winning 2-1, then losing 15-0. Before that, the Marlins lost two of three games to Boston, but just before that, they took the last three games of a series against Philadelphia. So Miami is 7-4 over its last 11 games.

Meanwhile, Atlanta just took two of three games from the Mets over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series rubber match 7-0. Just before that, the Braves dropped two of three games to Baltimore, but just before that, they took three of four from the Nationals. So Atlanta is also 7-4 over its last 11 games.

At 31-22, overall, the Braves lead the NL East by three games over the 28-25 Marlins. But Miami also leads the Phillies by one game in the battle for second place, and second place makes the playoffs this season.

These teams have split six meetings so far this season.

Monday’s Starting Arms

Ynoa is 0/4 on quality starts this season, serving as an “opener” to go along with four appearances in relief. Last Tuesday, he held Baltimore scoreless on two hits through four innings, with five strikeouts, before leaving the game with a stiff back. And five days before that, he held Washington to one run through three innings of relief, with four strikeouts.

On the season, Ynoa has allowed 11 runs and 18 hits through 18 2/3 innings, with 16 K’s and a poor 12 walks. Atlanta is 2-2 when Ynoa starts.

This will be Ynoa’s first-ever start against Miami.

Lefty Rogers is 1/5 on quality starts this year, partly due to a short leash. Last Wednesday, he held Boston to one run and three hits through three innings before leaving the game after getting hit in the back by a batted ball. But five days before that, he got bombed by Philadelphia for nine runs – eight earned – through three innings.

On the season, Rogers has allowed 14 ER and 22 hits, including five home runs, through 21 innings, with 29 strikeouts against ten walks. The Marlins are 3-2 when Rogers starts.

This will be Rogers’ first-ever start against Atlanta.

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Monday’s Batting Splits

Miami is batting .234 this season against right-handed pitching, with a .322 team OBP and a .362 team slugging percentage. The Marlins have also been shut out three times over their last nine games.

Atlanta is batting .242/.319/.418 vs. left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Miami bullpen owns a 5.27 ERA this season and a 1.52 WHIP, along with a 1.62 K/BB ratio.

The Atlanta pen owns a 3.43 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, along with a 2.62 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the top half-dozen bullpens in Baseball.

MLB Betting Trends

• Miami is 13-10 on the road this season.
• Atlanta is 15-8 at home this season.
• Miami is 22-14 against right-handed starters this season.
• Atlanta is 7-4 vs. left-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

• Overs are 29-23 in Marlins games this season.
• Overs are 27-21 in Braves games this season.
• Overs are 12-9 in games played at Truist Park this season.

Free MLB Pick

This game will probably come down to the bullpens, and the Braves own a considerable advantage in that department. So we like Atlanta. But we don’t like that price. So we’ll take a chance and give the run and a half with the Braves against the run line.