Mets vs. Padres Moneyline Prediction

New York Mets (37-19) vs. San Diego Padres (33-21)

When: 9:40 p.m., Monday, June 6

Where: Petco Park, San Diego

Moneyline: NYM -110/SD -110 (MyBookie – Use bonus code PREDICT100 and they’ll give you a 100% real cash bonus up to $300!)

Runline: Mets +1.5/Padres -1.5

Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco (6-1, 3.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) vs. Blake Snell (0-2, 4.80 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)

Biting the Hand

The Padres got a favor from the Mets over the weekend, as New York split with the Dodgers, allowing San Diego to scramble back to just two games behind the Dodgers. It’s still early enough to not worry about standings just yet, but there are two things that the Padres cannot afford to do: fall too far behind the Dodgers or squander the opportunities that come when Los Angeles hands them one.

The latter is in play here, as the Dodgers are coming off a 2-5 week, and the Padres finally got their offense going in Milwaukee. San Diego has been a disappointment on offense this season, as their young hitters have not produced for the most part. The Padres are still winning games because their rotation has more quality starts than anyone else in baseball, but they are eventually going to have to hit. Right now, they are doing exactly that, but continuing that against the Mets won’t be easy.

Beating the Traffic

Perhaps the Mets’ starters are trying to beat the rest of Queens onto the roads or onto the No. 7 train because quality starts have been one area where the Mets are severely lacking. By definition, a quality start goes at least six innings, and the pitcher gives up no more than three earned runs, which isn’t something the Mets are producing. For the year, New York hasn’t had a single pitcher clear both of those hurdles in the same game.

Yet the Mets are on top of the National League East and only seeing their lead on Atlanta and Philadelphia widen, in large part because the Mets’ starters know that they can count on the bullpen to protect leads and keep the other team’s offense at bay. For the year, the Mets rank eighth in bullpen ERA at 3.36 and only allow about two runners per game despite having to pitch four innings or more on most nights. Over bettors will likely hate this game because San Diego has been even better, having a slightly lower WHIP than the Mets’ bullpen at 1.16. Put simply, baserunners in this game could be precious, and runs could very much be at a premium.

Questionable Recovery

Blake Snell’s return to the mound has shown some positives and some negatives to this point. The Padres scratched him in what was supposed to be the opening start of the season for him, and since activating him, he’s had a few problems getting out of his innings and getting the game to the Padres bullpen.

There was an encouraging sign in the loss to St. Louis to close out May, that being that he allowed just two hits in six innings. However, he’s allowing as many runs as he has hits, which isn’t a sustainable prospect over the course of the season. Through three starts, roughly half the baserunners he has allowed via hits and walks have come around to score, something that has to change if he’s going to get back to being a dominant pitcher.

Betting Trends

• The Mets are 6-1 in their past seven games following a win.
• The Mets are 8-2 in their past ten games overall.
• The Padres are 5-0 in their past five games after scoring five runs or more the previous game.
• The Padres have won 12 of their past 16 series openers.
• The over is 9-3-1 in the Mets’ past 13 games overall.
• The over is 4-0-1 in the Mets’ past five Monday games.
• The under is 4-0-1 in the Padres’ past five Monday games.
• The under is 8-3-2 in the Padres’ past 13 games overall.
• The Mets have won four of their past five games against the Padres.
• The under is 5-2 in the teams’ past seven meetings.

Weather Report

When people talk about how great the weather is in San Diego, days like this are why. At first pitch, it’s slated to be 67 degrees, with winds moving at eight miles per hour toward first base.

Dan’s pick

The Padres are playing very well at the moment, and Carlos Carrasco has been a bit inconsistent for my taste. Over the past five starts, he’s alternated between good performance and bad, and the pattern suggests he is likely to pitch less than stellar this time out. With Blake Snell getting better each time out and getting back to full strength, I don’t really want to fade him here.

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