Mets vs. Padres: Betting Picks and Predictions

New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Date: Thursday, August 22nd, 9:40 ET
Location: PETCO Park
TV: None
Money Line: Mets +131/Padres -154
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the San Diego Padres and the Mets on Thursday, August 22nd at PETCO Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 9:40 PM ET, the Mets and Padres square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Padres are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -154. The money line odds for a Mets win are at +131, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.

Luis Severino will go for the Mets, and he is facing off against Dylan Cease for the Padres. The Mets are 3rd in the NL East, while the Padres are 3rd in the NL West.

Mets vs. Padres Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

New York Mets: 66-61 SU / OU 64-59 / Runline 59-68
San Diego Padres: 72-56 SU / OU 69-58 / Runline 67-61

Mets Records & Recent Play

New York’s last game came in their 4-3 win over the Orioles to close out their series. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -142. It got tense at the end, as the Orioles pulled to within one run in the 8th, but Edwin Diaz was able to close things out and pick up the save.

Sean Manaea put together a good start for the Mets, going seven innings and giving up just three runs on three hits. He also issued only one walk and struck out nine Orioles batters. The Mets’s offense was carried by Francisco Lindor, who went 2/4 with a homer and a run scored.

The Mets are 66-61 overall this season, and they are 8.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. New York is in 3rd place in the division and picked up a game on the Braves, who are 7.0 games out of first place.

So far, the Mets have gone 22-17 in divisional games. They will be looking to pick up a win today on the road, where they are 31-28 this season. New York is just above .500 at home, with a record of 35-33.

When the Mets are on the road, they are a good bet to cover the run line, as they are 31-28 against the run line away from home this season. Their average run differential on the road is +0.2 runs per game, and they are 3-0 against the run line in their last three road games. They are 28-21 against the run line as the underdog this season.

When the Mets are on the road, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, which is below their season average combined run average of 9.3. Overall, the Mets have played 91 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, which is 71.7% of their games. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 12-13.

Padres Records & Recent Play

The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Twins with an 11-4 loss. San Diego was actually the slight favorite at home going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Twins scored seven times in the 4th.

Matt Waldron took the loss for the Padres, going just 4 1/3 innings, and giving up 10 earned runs on 12 hits. San Diego’s offense scored their only four runs in the 2nd inning. Jackson Merrill hit a homer for the Padres but went just 2/4.

San Diego is hosting the Mets today with an overall record of 72-56, and they are four games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. The Padres are in 3rd place in the division, with the Diamondbacks also four games behind the Dodgers in 2nd place. So far, the Padres are just .500 in divisional games, going 20-20 this year.

At home, the Padres are 35-30 this season and 37-26 on the road. San Diego has been good as the favorite this year, putting up a mark of 45-34. As the underdog, the Padres are 27-22 this season. They have an overall series record of 26-14-3 this year.

When the Padres win, they tend to do so by a comfortable margin, as their average run differential in those games is +3.7. But when they lose, they tend to lose by a lot, with an average run differential of -3.5. That’s why they are just 67-61 against the run line this season. They are a much better bet on the run line on the road, where they are 41-22, compared to 26-39 at home. They are also a much better bet on the run line as an underdog, where they are 34-15, compared to 33-46 as a favorite.

San Diego Padres games have gone over the total in three straight, and the over/under record for the season is 69-58. The O/U line for today’s game against the New York Mets is 7.5, and the combined run average for Padres games this season is 9.0. Overall, 60.2% of Padres games have had higher O/U lines than 7.5, and the average O/U line for their games this season is 8 runs.

Pitching Matchup

Luis Severino is looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that start against the Marlins, he went nine innings and didn’t give up a run. Looking at his overall numbers, Severino has made 24 starts and has a record of 8-6. His ERA for the season is 3.91, along with a WHIP of 1.22. This year, opponents are batting .228 off the right-hander. Severino has one complete game shutout this year and 10 quality starts. For the season, he has allowed 17 homers and is averaging 7.38 strikeouts per nine innings.

Dylan Cease will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Rockies. In that start, Cease went 5 2/3 innings and gave up three earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Cease has made 26 starts and has a record of 12-9. His ERA for the season is 3.46, along with a WHIP of 1.02. Cease has one complete game shutout this year and 13 quality starts. For the season, Cease is averaging 11.29 strikeouts per nine innings. So far, he has allowed 17 homers and is averaging 3.03 walks per nine innings.

Mets vs. Padres Offense Outlook

So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per game. Overall, they are 5th in home runs and have the 8th best team batting average in the league. Over their last 10 games, Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos have been swinging the bat well, with Lindor hitting .366 and Vientos batting .353.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are the Mets’ top home run hitters, with 25 and 27 homers, respectively. Lindor comes into the game with a team-high 73 RBIs and is batting .266 for the season. Alonso is hitting .243 this year and is 3rd on the team with 69 RBIs.

San Diego comes into today’s game as the league’s top hitting team, with a batting average of .265. They are also near the top of the league in home runs and have the best strikeout rate in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per game.

Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado are leading the Padres in home runs this season, with 20 apiece. Profar is also the team’s leading run producer, with 76 RBIs. Machado has gone 6/22 in his last six games, including two homers. Jackson Merrill is also having a strong season, batting .291 with 18 homers.

Free Mets vs. Padres MLB Pick

Dylan Cease has been money for the Padres of late, as over his last seven starts, he is 5-1 with a 1.37 ERA. On the other side, he is facing Luis Severino, who is coming off a complete game vs the Marlins on August 17th. In that outing, he allowed just four hits and no runs. However, before that, he gave up four earned runs in two straight outings. I’m banking on the consistency of Cease, and like the Padres to win this one straight-up.