Mets vs. Braves: Betting Preview & Predictions

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Date: Monday, September 30th, 1:10 ET
Location: Truist Park
TV: SNY
Money Line: Mets +133/Braves -157
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Atlanta Braves and the Mets on Monday, September 30th at Truist Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Both the Mets and Braves will be looking to move into first place in the NL East, as they are currently tied with a record of 88-72. Monday’s matchup is set to get started at 1:10 PM ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, and the Braves are the betting favorite at -157. The moneyline odds for a Mets win are sitting at +133.

The over/under line for Monday’s game is at 7.5 runs, and SNY will be televising this matchup. Tylor Megill is starting for the Mets, while the Braves are sending Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound.

Mets vs. Braves Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

New York Mets: 88-72 SU / OU 80-75 / Runline 81-79
Atlanta Braves: 88-72 SU / OU 58-96 / Runline 76-84

Mets Records & Recent Play

Heading into their last game vs. the Brewers, the Mets closed out the series with a 5-0 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at -143 on the money line. It was a big first inning for the Mets, as they scored their first run of the game and added three more in the 4th.

David Peterson put together a good start for the Mets, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just three walks and struck out eight Brewers batters. New York’s offense was carried by Francisco Lindor, who went 2/4 with a homer and two RBIs.

The Mets are six games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead, as they are 88-72 overall this season. New York is 29-21 against other teams in the NL East. So far, they have an even 46-35 record at home and on the road.

As the favorite, the Mets have gone 59-39 this year and 29-33 as the underdog. They have an overall series record of 27-18-8 this season, and they are 6-4 across their last ten games. New York will be looking to bounce back today after dropping two of three to the Brewers.

The Mets have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 81-79 overall. They have been slightly better on the road, going 43-36, compared to 38-43 at home. Their average run differential on the season is +0.5 runs per game, with a +0.3 mark on the road and +0.6 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 36-26 on the run line, compared to 45-53 as the favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +3.7 runs per game, compared to -3.6 in losses.

The New York Mets are on the road today against the Atlanta Braves. The over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their season average of 8 runs per game. The Mets have played 39 games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs this season, going over in 22 of them. The over is 80-75 in their games overall this season.

Braves Records & Recent Play

The Braves will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Royals with a 4-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 3rd inning before the Royals scored three runs in the top of the 3rd. Atlanta was the -218 favorite at home going into the game.

Charlie Morton got the start for the Braves and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs on five hits. The Braves’s offense scored their only two runs in the 3rd, with Gio Urshela going 2/4 with a homer.

With an overall record of 88-72, the Braves are six games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Currently, they are in 3rd place in the division, sharing the same record as the Mets. The Braves went 27-23 in divisional games this year.

At home, the Braves are 45-34 this year, and they are 43-38 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 75-54 this year, and they are 13-18 as the underdog. Atlanta has won three straight series and has an overall series record of 29-16-7 this year.

When it comes to the run line, the Braves have been a better bet on the road than at home this season, going 43-38 compared to 33-46. They’ve been a favorite in most games, going 58-71 on the run line, but have been a better bet as an underdog, going 18-13. Their average run differential in games they’ve won is +3.8, while it’s -3.3 in losses.

The Braves have played in 116 games this season with an over/under line of 7.5 runs, and the over has hit in 13 of those games. Their combined run average for the season is 8.1 runs per game, and their over/under record is 58-96 overall. The under has hit in their last four games.

Pitching Matchup

New York is sending right-hander Tylor Megill to the mound today as he faces the Braves on the road. Megill has made 14 starts this season and has a record of 4-5 with an ERA of 3.98. So far, he has made three quality starts, averaging 10.33 strikeouts per nine innings. Megill’s last outing came on September 22nd vs. the Phillies, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in four innings of work. Before that, he had gone six innings without giving up an earned run and got the win. Megill has made it through six innings in each of his last three outings.

Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach has been pitching well recently, as he has picked up the win in each of his last three outings. Most recently, he went seven innings vs. the Mets, giving up just one earned run on four hits. Looking at his overall numbers, Schwellenbach has made 20 starts, and his record for the season is 8-7. The right-hander has an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.07; opponents are batting .228 off him this year. Schwellenbach has turned in 11 quality starts and is averaging 9.41 strikeouts per nine innings.

Mets vs. Braves Offense Outlook

Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been consistent at home and on the road this season, as their 4.8 runs per game on the road is 9th in the league, and their home mark of 4.7 runs per contest is 8th. As a team, the Mets are 5th in the league in home runs and have the 8th-best slugging percentage in the league.

Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo are all tied for the team lead in RBIs, with 88, and Alonso and Lindor are also 1st and 2nd on the team in home runs, respectively. Lindor is batting .272 for the season, and Alonso is hitting .240. Jose Iglesias is on a 20-game hitting streak, batting .429 over his last seven games.

For the season, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game. As a team, they have the 4th most home runs in the league and have the 5th best-isolated power mark in the league.

Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson have been the Braves’ top power threats this season, with Ozuna leading the team with 39 homers and Olson right behind him at 29. Ozuna is also batting .304 for the season, and Olson comes in with a batting average of .247. The Braves will look to keep their winning streak going, as Ronald Acuña Jr. has a four-game hitting streak heading into today’s game.

Free Mets vs. Braves MLB Pick

Game one of today’s double-header features an over/under line of just 7.5 runs with Tylor Megill and Spencer Schwellenbach on the mound. Both pitchers have been throwing the ball well of late, but I think game one will feature more scoring than the oddsmakers are expecting. My pick for game one is to take the over at 7.5 runs.