Mets vs. Braves MLB Best Bet 10/2/22

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves
Date: Sunday October 2nd, 07:08 ET
Location: Truist Park
TV: ESPN
Money Line: Mets +105 / Braves -125
Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

New York: Chris Bassitt (15-8, 3.22) Atlanta: Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.3)

Mets Projected Lineup

Tyler Naquin RF Luis Guillorme 2B Daniel Vogelbach 1B Mark Canha LF Tomás Nido C Jeff McNeil 2B Pete Alonso 1B Brandon Nimmo CF Francisco Lindor SS Chris Bassitt P

Braves Projected Lineup

William Contreras C Eddie Rosario LF Matt Olson 1B Travis d’Arnaud C Ronald Acuña Jr. RF Austin Riley 3B Orlando Arcia 2B Michael Harris II CF Dansby Swanson SS Charlie Morton P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

New York Mets: 98-60-0 SU / OU 82-67-9 / Run Line W/L 84-74-0 Atlanta Braves: 99-59-0 SU / OU 78-72-8 / Run Line W/L 82-76-0

The Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets on Sunday October 2nd at Truist Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:08 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-125), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Mets come into this game having suffered a 4-2 loss to Atlanta. New York’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 11 hits, leading to 4 runs. On offense, the Mets finished with 2 runs on 8 hits. Mets suffered the loss, despite being favored at -120.0. Through 125 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 66.0%. Together, the Mets and Atlanta stayed below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. However, for the season, New York still has an overall over-under record of 82-67-9.

The Mets will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. However, they have still put together a positive run differential of +3 (last 5). During this stretch, the offense is averaging 5.2 runs per game, similar to their season-long average of 4.73. So far, New York has won over half of their 50 series played, going 35-11-4.

In their last game, Atlanta took down the Mets by a score of 4-2. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 2 runs on 8 hits. The Braves’ offense ended the game with just 4 runs on 11 hits. Despite being the underdogs, getting 100.0 on the moneyline, the Braves still picked up the win. So far, the team has gone into 25 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 28%. Combined, the Braves and Met’s run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Even still, Atlanta games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 78-72-8.

In their last 5 games, the Braves have put together a record of 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +18 (last 5). Atlanta has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 5.4 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.89. On the season, Atlanta has won more than half of their series, going 28-15-7.

Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will send Chris Bassitt to the mound with an overall record of 15-8. Through 29 appearances, Bassitt has an ERA of just 3.22 while averaging 6.17 innings per appearance. In his previous outings, right-hander opponents are hitting 0.232 off the right-hander. This season, Bassitt has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 0.91 per 9 innings. Per game, Chris Bassitt is averaging 5.69, on a strikeout percentage of 23.0%. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Bassitt is averaging 2.31 free passes per outing.

In today’s game, Atlanta turns to starter Charlie Morton. For the year, he has a record of 9-6. So far, Morton has put together an ERA of 4.3. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.57 innings. Through 30 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.225. This year, home runs have been an issue for Morton. So far, he has allowed 1.4 per 9 innings. On average, he has racked up 6.67 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.33 walks per outing.

New York vs Atlanta History

For the season, the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will be playing their 19th game of the season. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as New York and Atlanta each have 9 wins. The over-under record in this series sits at 11-6. The average run total in these games is 7.68 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.56 runs. Dating back to last season, Atlanta picked up 10 wins compared to 9, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 7-11. Last year, the Mets and Braves averaged 7.68 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.47 runs per game.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets’s last 7 games
• The total has gone OVER in 10 of NY Mets’s last 12 games on the road
• Atlanta is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
• Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Prediction

Leading into Sunday’s NL East showdown between New York and Atlanta, the Braves have a sight edge on the moneyline. However, Charlie Morton is coming off an outing in which he gave up 6 runs in just 4 1/3 innings. On the other side, New York has picked up 2 straight wins with Chris Bassitt on the mound. I like the Mets on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Mets Moneyline