Can the Mets Steal Game 1 in Milwaukee? Joe Jensen’s Wild Card Predictions

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Tuesday, October 1st, 5:32 ET
Location: American Family Field
TV: ESPN
Money Line: Mets +119/Brewers -140
Total Line: 7.5

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Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Mets on Tuesday, October 1st at American Family Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 5:32 PM ET, the Mets and Brewers will square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are the favorites on the money line (-140). The Mets are 2nd in the NL East with a record of 89-73, while the Brewers are 1st in the NL Central at 93-69.

Today’s over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and the game can be seen on ESPN. Luis Severino is slated to start for the Mets, while the Brewers are going with Freddy Peralta.

Mets vs. Brewers Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

New York Mets: 89-73 SU / OU 81-76 / Runline 82-80
Milwaukee Brewers: 93-69 SU / OU 81-71 / Runline 82-80

Mets Records & Recent Play

The Mets will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Braves with a 3-0 loss. New York was the +263 underdog on the money line going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Mets, as Joey Lucchesi was sharp out of the gate, but he took the loss, as the Mets’s offense didn’t score a run.

Lucchesi put together a good start for the Mets, going six innings, giving up just one earned run, and striking out five. However, he was still tagged with the loss. The Mets’s offense only had three fewer hits than the Braves but didn’t score a run. New York’s best chance to score came in the 2nd inning, but they left the bases loaded.

The Mets are 2nd in the NL East, six games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Overall, the Mets are 89-73 heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Brewers. They will be looking to pick up a win on the road, where they are 43-38 this season.

As the favorite, the Mets have gone 59-39 this season and 30-34 as the underdog. They have an overall series record of 28-18-9 and split their most recent series with the Braves. Looking at their overall record, the Mets have gone 30-22 in divisional games this year.

When betting the run line on the Mets, it’s been a coin flip this season, as they are 82-80. They have been a better bet on the road than at home, going 44-37 on the run line away from Citi Field. Their average run margin this season is +0.4 runs per game, and they have been a better bet as the underdog, going 37-27 on the run line in those games.

When the Mets are on the road this season, the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs in 40 games. In those contests, the over has gone 23-17. The Mets have played 109 games with higher over/under lines and just 13 with lower lines. The average over/under line in their games is eight runs per game.

Brewers Records & Recent Play

Milwaukee is 93-69 overall this season, and they lead the NL Central by ten games over the Cardinals. The Brewers have gone 32-20 against other teams in the NL Central. They are also 35-21 as the home favorite this year.

The Brewers have an overall record of 29-18-4 in series this year, and they have won five straight series on the road. So far, they are 39-31 as the underdog.

When betting the run line on the Brewers this season, it’s been more profitable to take them when they are the underdog. Milwaukee is 46-24 against the run line as the underdog, compared to 36-56 as the favorite. Their overall run line record is 82-80, with an average run margin of +0.8 runs per game. They have been better on the road, going 45-36 against the run line with a scoring margin of +1.1 runs per game.

The Brewers have played in 117 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5, and they have gone over that line in 23 of them. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 81-71. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 7.5 runs, and the Brewers have gone over that line in two straight games.

Pitching Matchup

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today and comes in with a record of 11-7 and an ERA of 3.91. So far, he has made 31 starts and 14 of them have been quality starts. Severino’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.24. In his 31 appearances, he has given up a total of 23 home runs. Looking back at his last outing, Severino took the loss, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work vs. the Braves. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Freddy Peralta is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Pirates, as he gets the start for the Brewers today. In that start, he took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs, two walks, and two homers. Looking back over his last four starts, Peralta has allowed at least one homer in three of those outings. For the season, he has a record of 11-9 and an ERA of 3.68. Peralta’s WHIP for the season is 1.22, and opponents are batting .215 off the right-hander this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 3.52 walks compared to 10.36 strikeouts.

Mets vs. Brewers Offense Outlook

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, as Alonso’s 34 homers leads the team and is 10th in the league, while Lindor is right behind him with 33. Lindor is also the team’s leader in RBIs, with 91, and comes into the game batting .273. Alonso’s batting average is a bit lower at .240. Over his last four games, Lindor has two homers and is 6/17.

As a team, the Mets are 7th in the league in runs scored at 4.7 per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Overall, they are 6th in home runs and have the league’s 8th-best team batting average.

William Contreras has been swinging a hot bat for the Brewers of late, going 7/23 in his last seven games, including one home run. He is batting .281 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 92 RBIs. Willy Adames has a team-high 32 home runs and is 4th in the league in RBIs, with 112. Rhys Hoskins has 26 homers but is batting just .214.

As a team, the Brewers are 6th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in team batting average and have the 4th-best on-base percentage in the league. Currently, Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio are both on hitting streaks for the Brewers.

Free Mets vs. Brewers MLB Pick

The Wild Card round has not been kind to the Brewers over the past few seasons. However, I see their fortunes changing for at least game one, as the Mets are coming off a doubleheader and had to get right back on the road to Milwaukee. I see Freddy Peralta putting together a good outing for Milwaukee, and I like the Brewers to win by multiple runs in this one.

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