Mariners vs Astros Game 1 Odds, Trends, Predictions 10/11/22

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
Date: Tuesday October 11th, 03:37 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: TBS
Money Line: Mariners +170 / Astros -210
Total Line: 6.5

STARTING PITCHING

Seattle: Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.25)
Houston: Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75)

Mariners Projected Lineup

J.P. Crawford SS
Jarred Kelenic LF
Carlos Santana RF
Mitch Haniger RF
Cal Raleigh C
Eugenio Suárez 3B
Adam Frazier 2B
Julio Rodriguez CF
Ty France 1B
Logan Gilbert P

Astros Projected Lineup

Trey Mancini 1B
Chas McCormick RF
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Justin Verlander P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Seattle Mariners: 90-72-0 SU / OU 76-80-8 / Run Line W/L 85-79-0
Houston Astros: 106-56-0 SU / OU 60-93-9 / Run Line W/L 86-76-0

The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday October 11th at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 03:37 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-210), with an OU line set at 6.5.

Recent Form

The Seattle Mariners head into today’s matchup after picking up a close win over Toronto by the score of 10-9. For the game, Seattle’s pitching staff allowed 9 runs on 8 hits. The Mariners lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 9 hits, leading to 10 runs. Seattle picked up the win, despite getting 145.0 on the moneyline. With the over-under line set at 7.5 runs, the Mariners and Toronto combined to go over this total. Games involving the Mariners have stayed below the over-under line more than half of the time, at 76-80-8.

The Mariners will look to continue their strong play, as they are 5-0 over their last five contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +10. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 7.0 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.29. So far, Seattle has won over half of their 52 series played, going 28-20-4.

The Astros are coming off a tight 3-2 win over the Phillies to close out the regular season. For the game, the pitching staff held the Phillies to 2 runs on 4 hits. With their 12 hits, the Astros could only muster 3 runs. In the game, Houston was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -200.0. So far, the team has won 68.0% of the games in which they were favored. With this result, the Astros and Phillies combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 60-93-9.

Across their last 5 contests, the Astros are above .500, going 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +11 (last 5). Houston is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 3.6 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.55. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 34-13-6.

Pitching Matchup

The Seattle Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the mound with an overall record of 13-6. Currently, Gilbert has an ERA of just 3.25 while pitching an average of 5.79 innings per outing. Across his previous appearances, the right-hander has a batting average allowed of 0.242. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Gilbert, as he is allowing just 0.92 per 9 innings. Per game, Logan Gilbert is averaging 5.44, on a strikeout percentage of 23.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.38 walks per outing.

Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros, with an overall record of 18-4. Currently, Verlander has a strong ERA of just 1.75 while pitching an average of 6.25 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.186 against him. Home runs have not been an issue for Verlander, as he is giving up just 0.62 per 9. In terms of strikeouts, he has a per-game average of 6.61. Verlander comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 1.49 free passes per outing.

Seattle vs Houston History

For the season, the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros will be playing their 20th game of the season. Houston holds the edge in the series at 12-7. Through 19 games, the series over-under record is 8-11, with the average run total sitting at 9.37 runs per game. The average scoring margin in these meetings is 3.89 runs.

Betting Trends

• Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle’s last 5 games
• Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
• Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Prediction

Heading into game 1 of this AL Divisional Series, the Astros are the strong favorite on the moneyline. Even though Seattle is the hottest team in baseball, look for Justin Verlander put Houston up 1-0. The last two times the veteran right-hander faced the Mariners, he has given up a total of 2 runs across 14 innings. I recommend taking the Mariners on the Moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Mariners