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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Pick 5/4/19

by | May 4, 2019 | mlb

Rich Hill Dodgers Starter for Game 4

Los Angeles Dodgers (21-13) vs. San Diego Padres (18-15), 5/4/19
Time: 8:40 pm ET
Where: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Listed Pitchers: Rich Hill (0-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) vs. Joey Lucchesi (3-2, 4.94, 1.45)
TV: SportsNet LA, FS San Diego

Moneyline: Dodgers -125/Padres +115 (SportsBetting.ag)
Over/Under: 8

The Dodgers came from behind to steal the opener of this three-game series in San Diego Friday night and shoot for the series victory Saturday night. Which way are we going here with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday’s MLB betting odds opened Los Angeles and Hill at around -130 over San Diego and Lucchesi, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then dipped that line down to around -125 depending on what sports betting site you play at.

The Dodgers could also be found getting around +110 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Dodgers vs. Padres Set-Up

Los Angeles grabbed Game 1 of this series Friday night 4-3, winning as a -165 post-time favorite with Clay Kershaw. The Dodgers actually spotted the Padres an early 3-0 lead, then scored single runs in the fifth, sixth, seventh and ninth innings for the victory.

Also, Friday’s game just sneaked under its total of 7.5 runs.

With Friday’s victory, Los Angeles is 6-2 over its last eight games. At 21-13 overall the Dodgers lead the NL West by one game over second-place Arizona.

With Friday’s loss, San Diego is 2-4 over its last six games. At 18-15 overall the Padres occupy third place in the NL West, 2.5 games back of first-place Los Angeles.

This series is the first meeting between these SoCal rivals this season. Last year the Dodgers took the season series from the Padres 14 games to five.

Get more MLB: Check out Dan’s OAK/PIT pick.

Saturday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Lucchesi is 0/6 on quality starts this season, although three times he’s gotten within three outs of a QS, only to get pulled. But he’s also been going a bit rough as of late. Last Sunday he gave up five runs – four earned – and nine hits over four innings in a 7-6 San Diego loss to Washington, and over his previous four starts he’s been tagged for 17 ER and 28 hits through 20 2/3 innings.

San Diego is 3-3 with Lucchesi this season.

In three starts as a rookie, last year against Los Angeles Lucchesi allowed 12 ER runs and 18 hits through 12 2/3 innings. The Padres lost all three of those games.

Fellow southpaw Hill began this season on the DL nursing a sore knee, then made his season debut last Sunday against Pittsburgh, giving up five runs, although only one was earned, on five hits, including a couple of dingers, through six innings of a game LA eventually won 6-5. Hill actually gave up those five runs in the first two innings, then later retired the final 13 batters he faced.

Last year Hill finished 10/25 on quality starts, and the Dodgers finished 14-11 with him.

In three starts last year against San Diego Hill allowed five runs and 14 hits through 20 innings, with 22 strikeouts against just two walks. The Dodgers won two of those three games.

Saturday’s Batting Splits

Los Angeles is batting .235/.328/.416 against left-handed pitching this season.

San Diego is batting .210/.283/.424 against LH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen owns a 4.50 ERA this season, along with a 1.22 WHIP and a 116/38 K/BB ratio.

The Padres pen owns a 3.60 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and a 136/40 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 17-17 in Dodgers games this season.
  • Unders are 18-13-2 in Padres games this season.
  • Unders are 12-4 in games played at Petco Park this season.
  • Unders are 4-2 in Lucchesi’s starts this season.
  • Overs finished 11-7-1 in Dodgers-Padres games last season.

Free MLB Pick

LA is trending “good” at the moment, while San Diego is stumbling just a bit. Also, the Dodgers should carry some momentum with them after rallying for the victory Friday night. And finally, Hill was very tough on the Padres last season, while Los Angeles had its way with Lucchesi. We’re going with LA here for our free MLB pick for Saturday.

Take the Dodgers -125