Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets Pick 9/15/19

Los Angeles Dodgers (96-54) vs. New York Mets (77-71)
When: 7 p.m., Sunday, September 15
Where: Citi Field, New York

Moneyline: LAD -140/NYM +130 (Bovada)
Runline: Dodgers -1.5/Mets +1.5
Total: 8

Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler (13-3, 3.14 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) vs. Zach Wheeler (11-7, 4.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)

Walker, Los Angeles Dodgers

There has been no middle ground with Walker Buehler over his past nine starts. He’s either been unhittable, or he’s been out of the game before the seventh inning after getting whacked. In six of those starts, he’s been dominant, pitching five shutouts and giving up just one run in the other start. But in the other three, he’s given up a combined 15 earned runs and hasn’t made it through the sixth. That means it’s hard to make a bet one way or the other with him. Mainly because there hasn’t been any rhyme or reason as to when the off-day has come. Two of those starts have come on the road, but in his past two road starts against San Diego and Baltimore, he went 13 innings without giving up a run.

Wheeling and Dealing

Consistency, thy name is Zach Wheeler. Over his past three starts, Wheeler has been nothing short of outstanding, holding the Phillies, Nationals, and Diamondbacks to a mere run and seven hits in all three starts, as the Mets put all three games in the win column. In fact, the only opponent Wheeler hasn’t been able to figure out of late is the Braves, as New York has gone 7-2 in his past nine starts, with the only losses coming to Atlanta.

Making matters even better for the Mets is the fact that Wheeler’s been producing while hitting his spots. In his past eight non-Atlanta starts, he’s walked no more than three batters.

Treading Water

Two out of three wins in a series aren’t ideal for the Mets, given their current position, but it’s a darn sight better than one out of three. The Mets have to keep pace with the Cubs as they get into the softest part of their schedule, and taking a second game from Los Angeles would go a long way toward achieving that goal. New York has an edge down the stretch with the Cubs playing their final six games on the road, but the Mets have to get to that point first. Getting this one against the Dodgers would go a long way toward keeping themselves in the race and giving themselves a chance.

The Historicals

The Dodgers won the series by earning a win over the Mets on Friday, and the edge is 4-2 for Los Angeles for the year. However, the Mets do have the chance to win the season series in New York, which would be a significant psychological edge for New York if they do end up making the postseason and having to face the Dodgers one more time.

Betting Trends

The Dodgers are 6-1 in their past seven games against a starter with a WHIP over 1.30. The Dodgers have won Buehler’s past four starts. The Mets are 6-1 in their past seven against the NL West. The Mets are 1-4 in their past five Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ past four Sunday games. The over is 6-2 in the teams’ past eight meetings. Weather Report The pleasant weather that the Big Apple has seen all weekend will continue, with temperatures at 74 degrees at first pitch.

Dan’s pick

The Mets really need this game, but I can’t get past Zach Wheeler’s awful history against Los Angeles. In three games against the Dodgers, he’s got an ERA of 7.88. That’s a sharp contrast with how well he’s been pitching of late. But, the counter to that statement is that Wheeler hasn’t faced anyone like the Dodgers because there really isn’t anyone like the Dodgers in the National League. The closest thing to Los Angeles is Atlanta — and Wheeler has been terrible against Atlanta. On the other side of the coin, Buehler’s bad side emerged in his only appearance against the Mets, as the Dodgers needed to bail him out in a 9-8 victory in Los Angeles earlier this season. This tells me that just like Friday, the over-under is set too low and the pitcher’s duel that everyone expects will not materialize. Instead, your best move is to take the over and plan on some fireworks. If you have to bet on one team or the other, I would say to go with the Dodgers here. But my best advice for this game is to bet the over.