Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Pick 7/15/19

Los Angeles Dodgers (61-33) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (48-45), 7/15/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Monday, July 15
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Listed Pitchers: Clay Kershaw (7-2, 3.09 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) vs. Zach Eflin (7-8, 3.78, 1.30)
TV: ESPN, SportsNet LA, NBCS Philadelphia

Moneyline: Dodgers -170/Phillies +155 (MyBookie)
Over/Under: 9.5

The Dodgers own a big lead in their divisional race heading into the opener of a four-game series with the Phillies in Philadelphia beginning Monday night. But they’re also trying to avoid playing on cruise-control from here on out. How are we playing Monday’s game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened LA and Kershaw at around -155 over Philadelphia and Eflin, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line about 15 cents, to around -170.

The Dodgers could also be found giving around -110 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Dodgers vs. Phillies Set-Up

Los Angeles just took two of three games in Boston over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series rubber match 7-4 in 12 innings. But just before the All-Star break the Dodgers lost the last three games of a series against San Diego. So LA is only 2-4 over its last six contests.

But at 62-33 overall the Dodgers lead the NL West by 14.5 games over both Colorado and Arizona, and they’re still 4.5 games up on Atlanta in the fight for the best record in the National League.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to Washington over the weekend, avoiding the sweep by winning Sunday 4-3 on a walk-off homer by Maikel Franco in the bottom of the ninth. The Phillies could have taken two of three from the Nationals but blew a late lead and lost Saturday’s game 4-3.

Just before the All-Star break Philly took two of three from the Mets, but just before that they lost two of three to Atlanta. So the Phillies are 3-5 over their last eight games.

At 48-45 overall Philadelphia trails the first-place Braves by 8.5 games in the NL East race, but it also now owns the second National League wild-card spot.

This series is the second meeting between these teams this season. Back in May, the Dodgers swept three games from the Phillies out in LA.

Monday’s Starting Arms

Eflin, by our strict standards, is 9/17 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last three. Most recently, 11 days ago, he gave up seven runs – six earned – and seven hits, including two home runs, through just three innings of a 12-6 Philly loss to Atlanta. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed 15 ER and 26 hits, including six dingers, through just 14 innings.

The Phillies are 7-10 with Eflin this season and 1-4 over his last five starts.

In two starts last year against Los Angeles Eflin gave up eight runs and 12 hits, including five ding-dongs, over just 6 2/3 innings. Philadelphia lost both those games.

Lefty Kershaw is 9/15 on quality starts this year but only one for his last three. Most recently, ten days ago, he held the Padres to two runs – one earned – and five hits over seven innings, with nine strikeouts, although the Dodgers lost that game 3-2. But over his two starts previous to that he allowed eight runs and 14 hits through 13 innings.

Los Angeles is 11-4 with Kershaw this season, but 0-3 over his last three starts.

Over his last two starts against the Phillies, one last year and one earlier this season, Kershaw allowed just one ER and ten hits through 12 innings. The Dodgers split those two games.

Monday’s Batting Splits

Los Angeles is batting .265/.346/.475 against right-handed pitching this season, which ranks this lineup in the top three in the Majors in this split.

Philadelphia is batting .259/.328/.443 against left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen owns a 4.05 ERA this season and a 1.18 WHIP while allowing a .686 OPS. Numbers like this help this unit rank among the top half-dozen bullpens in Baseball at the moment.

The Phillies pen owns a 4.74 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP while allowing an .802 OPS.

Totals Report

• Overs are 46-44 in Dodgers games this season.
• Unders are 47-43 in Phillies games this season.
• Unders are 27-19 in games played at Citizens Bank Park this season.
• Unders are 2-0 in Dodgers-Phillies games this season.

Free MLB Pick

Los Angeles gets our handicapping check-marks in the pitching match-up, with the sticks, and in the bullpen comparison, so we like the Dodgers here. And we also like taking chances, so we’ll give the run and a half with LA against the run line.