by Kevin of Predictem.com
Despite Angels starter Joe Saunders numbers, I believe
that he’s a very good pitcher. If you look at his game logs you’ll see that
he pitches really well for stretches then has a game where a team completely
bombs him.
He’s also a much better pitcher away from home. His road numbers are a very respectable 3.20 ERA with opponents only hitting .242 against him. Those opponents weren’t any slouches either: CWS, Seattle, Boston and Toronto.
The guy is also a Mariner killer. He’s 7-1 against the M’s lifetime, despite getting blasted in his last outing against them.
Furthermore, the guy REALLY likes to pitch at Safeco where his career numbers are REALLY solid as he’s 5-0 there in 41 innings, with a 2.41 ERA, 1.22 whip and has held the M’s hitters to a nasty .213 batting average.
Mariner hitters haven’t done much against him over their career’s as they’ve posted the following stats:
Milton Bradley 2-10
Franklin Gutierrez 4-14
Jose Lopez 7-32
Ichiro 9-33
Mike Sweeney 4-18
My worry is that Mike Sweeney might hit the guy hard.
Sweeney was absolutely on fire but has only gone 2 for his last 21. He really
locks in on lefties like Saunders though, so I’m hoping that his hot streak
is over!
The last 3 Mariner games have had combined scores of 5, 3 and 8 which isn’t a huge variable, however, it’s good supporting info as it indicates that their bats aren’t on fire right now.
The last 4 Angels games have had combined scores of 8, 9, 9 and 9. Their doing surprisingly well for losing thier best hitter. Im hoping that between the fact that they had to travel from KC to Seattle along with the unfriendly confines of Safeco field will be just enough to keep them under tonight’s line of 8.5.
I’m a little considered about Bobby Abreu and I do believe
Hideki Matsui will have a big night against Snell tonight
as he’s 7-14 over the past few games and historically, he’s hit Snell really
well.
I’d consider the Angels as a play at -108, however, with Halos top hitter Kendry Morales is OUT with what is likely a season ending injury, I don’t expect them to keep up putting up decent numbers like they have recently.
This ain’t gonna be an easy cash, but I believe the game goes under 8.5 by a run or so.
