Lay the Big Number: Angels vs. Mariners Pick 10/1/21

Los Angeles Angels (75-84) vs. Seattle Mariners (89-70)
When: 10:10 p.m., Friday, October 1
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Moneyline: LAA +145/SEA -175 (Get better lines >>>)
Runline: Angels +1.5/Mariners -1.5
Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Jose Suarez vs. Marco Gonzales

On Their Shoulders

This is exactly where Seattle wanted to be as it entered the final week of the season: they’ve got a chance to finally end the playoff drought after 20 long years if they can simply take care of business on their own end. With Boston and Toronto struggling down the stretch, three wins over the Angels just might be enough to get Seattle back to Yankee Stadium for a chance to get into the Division Series for the first time since 2001.

The good news for the Mariners is that not only are they playing some of their best baseball of the season right now, but they’re also facing an Angels team that has long given up on the season. Los Angeheim was supposed to find itself in the playoff picture given Shohei Ohtani’s incredible season, but instead, the Angels find themselves almost as close to 100-loss Texas as they do to the Mariners. The Angels don’t have anything to play for, and with just three wins in their past ten games, they’re playing like it. The opportunity is there for the Mariners, and if they can simply keep up what they’ve done, they’ll likely be celebrating a postseason bid.

Under the Bar

Looking at the ERA numbers alone, you’d think that Marco Gonzales would be a strong over play, as he’s only recently gotten his ERA under four. But on the other side of the coin, the Mariners have consistently been unable to hit at all, which means that Gonzales has done just enough each time out to get unders and to get his team victories.

Over his past 13 trips to the mound, only three appearances have gone over the total, and two of those were because Seattle was facing the trash can fire known as Arizona. In Gonzales’ other ten starts, nine of them has seen both teams fail to score more than five runs, which usually results in the under coming in comfortably. The one exception to that was a trip to Colorado, which had the total set at 11 and still cashed in a 6-4 Mariners win.

Gonzales isn’t going to make you feel comfortable with the under, but with the Angels having had their problems with hitting Seattle (actually, with hitting everyone not named Texas), there’s a good chance that this roller coaster will end with a victory.

Finishing at Home

One of the biggest reasons that Seattle is in this position is that it’s gotten the job done at home, as the Mariners currently have a 45-33 mark on their home turf. In the American League, only the division champions and Boston have been better at home, which is the main reason the Mariners have overcome their lack of offense to hang tight in this race.

The Angels have played fairly well when they’ve made the trip up Interstate 5, as they’ve got a 2-4 record when coming to Seattle. But the big concern here is whether they’ve got any motivation left to try to ruin the Mariners’ season, even if they have played well in this building in the past. Some teams try to go all out to wreck a rival’s hopes, but there’s nothing that suggests that the Angels are capable of doing that here.

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Betting Trends

• The Angels are 3-10 in their past 13 games overall.
• The Angels are 0-6 in their past six series openers.
• The Mariners are 10-1 in their past 11 games overall.
• The Mariners are 5-1 in their past six games as a favorite.
• The over is 5-1-1 in the Angels’ past seven games as an underdog.
• The over is 5-2 in the Angels’ past seven against a team with a winning record.
• The over is 7-2 in the Mariners’ past nine home games.
• The over is 8-3 in the Mariners’ past 11 games as a favorite.
• The Angels are 3-7 in their past ten meetings.
• The over is 5-1 in the teams’ past six meetings.

Weather Report

Expect the Mariners to close the roof in this one, as the temperature will plunge to 56 degrees at first pitch and only get colder from there. If the roof is open, the wind will blow in at five miles per hour from left-center.

Dan’s Pick

There’s nothing that says the Angels are capable of competing in this situation. They seem to have lost any fight they had when Mike Trout went down, and the chances of them going up to Seattle and ruining the Mariners’ season are pretty slim based on what we’ve seen. Give me the Mariners here.