LA Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Pick

Los Angeles Dodgers (55-27) vs. Colorado Rockies (42-38), 6/27/19
Time: 8:40 pm ET
Where: Coors Field, Denver, CO
Listed Pitchers: Walker Buehler (8-1, 2.96 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) vs. Peter Lambert (2-0, 5.85, 1.35)
TV: MLB, SportsNet LA, SportsNet Rocky Mountain
Moneyline: Dodgers -205/Rockies +185 (MyBookie)
Over/Under: 11

Los Angeles is 6-0 against Colorado this season, heading into the opener of this four-game NL West series Thursday night in Denver. And pitcher Walker Buehler just whiffed 16 Rockies his last time out. How are we playing this game for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened Los Angeles and Walker at around -175 over Colorado and Lambert, with an over/under of 11 runs. Early betting action then steamed that line 30 cents, to around -205.

The Dodgers could also be found at around -135 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Dodgers vs. Rockies Set-Up

Los Angeles just dropped two of three games at Arizona earlier this week, losing Wednesday’s series finale 8-2. But just before that the Dodgers swept three games from these Rockies, and just before that they took the last three games of a four-game series against San Francisco. So Los Angeles is 7-2 over its last nine games.

Colorado, meanwhile, just took two of three games from the Giants in SF, winning Wednesday’s series rubber match 6-3. Just before that, as mentioned above, the Rockies got swept three games by the Dodgers, but just before that they swept three games at Arizona. So Colorado is 5-4 over its last nine games.

At 55-27 overall LA leads the NL West by 12 games over the 42-38 Rockies. The Dodgers are also 6.5 games up on Atlanta in the battle for the best record in the National League, while Colorado is also tied with Milwaukee and Philadelphia for the lead in the National League wild-card race.

Los Angeles leads the season series with the Rockies six games to none, with a pair of three-game sweeps.

Thursday’s Starting Arms

Rookie righty Lambert is one/four on quality starts this season. Three weeks ago, in his ML debut at Wrigley Field, he held the Cubs to one run through seven innings, with nine strikeouts, in a 3-1 Colorado win. Five days later he held the Cubs to one run through five frames of a 10-3 victory. He then got bombed by San Diego for eight runs in three innings of a 14-13 loss. Then last Saturday, against these Dodgers, he gave up three runs and seven hits through five innings of a 5-4 Rockies defeat.

So Colorado is 2-2 with Lambert this season.

This will be Lambert’s second straight start against LA, which could work to his detriment.

Buehler is 9/15 on quality starts this year, working on a run of four in a row. Last Friday he held these Rockies to two runs and three hits through nine full innings, with 16 strikeouts against zero walks, in a 4-2 Dodgers win. And over his last four starts he’s allowed just three runs and 13 hits through 31 innings, with 42 whiffs against just one base on balls!

Los Angeles is 10-5 with Buehler this season, 5-1 over his last six starts.

Over eight career starts against Colorado, six last year and two already this season, Buehler allowed 12 earned runs and 30 hits through 51 2/3 innings. The Dodgers won five of those eight games.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

• Los Angeles is batting .265/.345/.475 against right-handed pitching this season.

• Colorado is batting .262/.321/.448 against RH pitching this year.

The Bullpens

• The Dodgers bullpen owns a 4.09 ERA this season and a 1.18 WHIP, while allowing a .681 OPS.

• The Rockies pen owns a 4.39 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, while allowing a .749 OPS.

Totals Report

• Overs are 40-38 in Dodgers games this season.

• Overs are 41-35 in Rockies games this season.

• Overs are 23-14 in games played at Coors Field this season, despite totals regularly posted at 11 and above.

Free MLB Pick

Los Angeles own a significant advantage in the pitching match-up and edges with both the sticks and in the bullpen, so we obviously like the Dodgers here. But that spread is too much. So we’ll give the run and a half and play LA against the MLB run line.