Kansas City (5th – AL Central) at Toronto (2nd – AL East)
Where: Rogers Centre
When: April 17, 2018 3:07PM EST
Moneyline: Royals +175 / Jays -185
Over/Under: 8.5
By expert handicapper Rich Crew
This game was originally scheduled for Monday night, but falling ice from the CN Tower damaged the roof at Rogers Centre, so it wil lbe played as part of double-header today. The first pitch on Tuesday, April 16, 2018, is scheduled for 3:07 PM. The early odds on this match has Toronto as a -185 money line favorite over Kansas City and the total is offered up at 8.5 -110.
The Royals had their last game at Kauffman Stadium postponed on Sunday which may be a good thing. Kansas City has lost five straight games all at home and has an AL-worst 1-7 record as a host this season. On the road, they haven’t been great going 2-3, but they have faced some decent arms in the five contests.
The Jays had their last two games rained out, and so they come into this game with two days rest. Whether that will be a positive or negative is anyone’s guess. One thing that isn’t in question is their solid play this campaign. Toronto has not lost a series so far this season splitting with the Yankees and winning their series against Chicago, Texas, Baltimore and Cleveland.
Pitching Match-up
Kansas City: The Royals will go with Lefty Eric Skoglund in the series opener. Skoglund has made just one start this season, and it wasn’t pretty getting tagged with the loss going 4 2/3 innings allowing five earned runs on six hits striking out just one and walking three against Seattle. The tall left-hander has only five career starts under his belt and hasn’t pitched well since his major league debut where he got the win and quality start pitching six clean innings versus the Tigers. He’ll be making his first start against Toronto.
Toronto: Jaime Garcia will be making his third start of the season when he takes the mound against the Royals. Garcia is coming off a mediocre performance against the Rangers where he did get the “W” pitching 5 1/3 innings allowing three earned on five hits. His first start for the Jays was impressive pitching six innings allowing one run on just four hits. He hasn’t faced the Royals since 2015, so those statistics are left out of the analysis. Garcia does have some history against a handful of Royals with Alcides Escobar getting more than half the plate appearances. Over 34 at-bats the five starters have hit a combined .265 batting average with a .390 on-base percentage.
Betting Trends
The Royals took four of their six meetings last season including two of three at the Rogers Centre. In fact, dating back to the 2016 baseball season Kansas City has won six of the previous eight matches.
Last season the UNDER bet was the money maker with four of the six games falling short of the closing total line. Over the last ten, the UNDER has dominated with eight of the games resulting in UNDERs. Check out which teams are trending in the Baseball Picks Forum.
Public Money
The early indications show that the Jays are going to take the Lion’s share of the money line action with 84% of the wagers being placed on Toronto. The total is a different story with the bets near dead even 52% on the OVER and 48% on the UNDER.
Royals at Jays Prediction April/17/18
There isn’t a treasure chest full of information on the batter vs. pitcher metrics especially with Skogland versus the Jays projected starting lineup with swing hitter Yangervis Solarte (2 PA’s 0 Hits and 1 Walk) the only starter to have any at bats. What we do know about the Royals starter is that he hasn’t anything near a quality start since his MLB debut. Garcia, we have a bit of info on; Lefties Lucas Duda (.400 BA) and Mike Moustakas (.600 BA) have had success against Garcia. If we adjust Escobar’s at-bats to a reasonable per game level, the team’s handful of batters that he has faced with would have a batting average just below .300. Another metric to consider is team vs. RHP compared to LHP. Both sides hit left-handed pitching better than right-handed with the Royals increasing by 0.68 runs per nine innings pitched and the Jays 1.83 runs.
Crew’s Pick: Take the Take the OVER 8.5 at 5Dimes to get the best line on this game and guys if you don’t have an account here, now is the time to save money all season long with this betting shop’s overnight nickel lines and dime line betting on game day!
