Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Pick

Houston Astros (18-12) vs. Minnesota Twins (17-10), 5/1/19
Time: 8:10 pm ET
Where: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Listed Pitchers: Collin McHugh (3-2, 4.78 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs. Martin Perez (3-0, 4.44, 1.59)

TV: ESPN, SportsNet Southwest
Moneyline: Astros -140/Twins +130 (5Dimes)
Over/Under: 9

The Twins and Astros sit at a game apiece heading into the third game of their four-game series Wednesday night in Minneapolis. But Minnesota is up money because it’s been lined as a home dog both games so far, and it’s lined as a home dog again for Wednesday. Which way are we going here with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday’s MLB betting odds opened Houston and McHugh at around -145 over Minnesota and Perez, with an over/under of 9 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line to -140.

The Astros could also be found getting around +105 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Astros vs. Twins Set-Up

Minnesota took the opener of this series Monday night 1-0, cashing in as a +150 underdog against Justin Verlander. But Houston took Game 2 Tuesday night 11-0 as a -160 favorite with Gerrit Cole, and covered against the run line at a price of +105.

The Astros led Tuesday’s game 3-0, then pulled away with four runs in the top of the sixth inning and four more in the top of the eighth. On the night Houston rapped out 15 hits, while the Twins managed just three.

More Picks: Today’s NBA Predictions

With Tuesday’s win Houston is 3-1 over its last four games. At 18-12 overall the Astros lead the AL West by one game over second-place Seattle.

Tuesday’s loss snapped a four-game winning streak for Minnesota. At 17-10 overall the Twins lead the AL Central by a game and a half over second-place Cleveland.

This series is the second encounter between these teams this season. Last week Houston took two of three games from Minnesota down in Texas.

Wednesday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Perez is 2/3 on quality starts this season, along with three appearances in relief. Last Friday he held Baltimore to one run and six hits through six innings of a 6-1 Twins victory. And over his last three appearances he’s held foes to six runs and 19 hits through 18 innings.

Minnesota is 2-1 with Perez starting this season.

This will be Perez’s first appearance against the Astros since 2017, when as a Ranger he allowed seven earned runs and 15 hits through 10 2/3 innings, covering two starts. Texas split those two games.

McHugh is 3/6 on quality starts this season but 0 for his last two. Last Friday he allowed three runs and four hits, including three homers, through 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 Houston loss to Cleveland. And just before that he got tagged for nine ER and eight hits, including a couple of dingers, through just 3 1/3 innings of an 11-10 Astros defeat against the Rangers.

Houston is 3-3 with McHugh this season.

This will be McHugh’s first start against the Twins since 2016, and that’s already a long time ago.

Wednesday’s Batting Splits

• Houston is batting .300/.379/.540 against left-handed pitching this season.

• Minnesota is batting .258/.324/.494 against right-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

• The Astros bullpen owns a 2.91 ERA this season, which ranks No. 1 in the Majors, along with a 1.03 WHIP, which also ranks No. 1, and a 91/26 K/BB ratio.

• The Twins bullpen owns a 4.63 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP and a 97/50 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

• Unders are 18-11-1 in Astros games this season.

• Overs are 15-12 in Twins games this season.

• Unders are 8-6 in games played at Target Field this season.

• Overs are 3-2 in Astros-Twins games this season.

• Unders are 2-1 in Perez’s starts this season.

• Overs are 3-2-1 in McHugh’s starts this season.

Free MLB Pick

This pitching match-up looks like about a wash, but Houston owns advantages in the splits with the sticks and in the comparison of the bullpens. So we like the Astros here. And we never mind chasing the better price with visiting favorites against the run line, so we’ll give the run and a half.