Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick 9/2/19

Houston Astros (89-49) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (70-66), 9/2/19
Time: 4:10 pm ET Monday, Sept. 2

Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Listed Pitchers: Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) vs. Adrian Houser (6-5, 3.52, 1.28)
TV: ESPN, SportsNet Southwest, FS Wisconsin

Moneyline: Astros -185/Brewers +165 (BetOnline)
Over/Under: 8.5

The Houston Astros are rolling toward the playoffs while the Milwaukee Brewers are just trying to stay alive in the NL wild-card race heading into the opener of this quick two-game interleague series in Beer City Monday afternoon. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened Houston and Cole at around -185 over Milwaukee and Houser, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

The Astros could also be found at around -110 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Astros vs. Brewers Set-Up

Houston just took two of three games in Toronto over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series rubber match 2-0 on Justin Verlander’s third career no-hitter. Just before that, the Astros took two of three games from Tampa Bay, and just before that they swept three games from the Angels. Going back a bit further Houston is 11-3 over its last 14 games.

At 89-49 overall the Astros lead the AL West by ten games over second-place Oakland, and they’re just one game behind the Yankees in the battle for the best record in the American League.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, just took two of three games from the Cubs at Wrigley over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series rubber match 4-0. Just before that the Brewers lost two of three to St. Louis, but just before that they took two of three from Arizona. So Milwaukee is 6-4 over its last ten games.

At 70-66 overall the Brewers trail the first-place Cardinals by six games in the NL Central but they’re also only three games behind the Cubs in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

This series is the second meeting between these teams this season; back in June, they split two games down in H-Town.

Monday’s Starting Arms

Rookie righty Houser is just 2/12 on quality starts this season, to go along with 17 appearances in relief, but both those QS have come in his last four outings. Last Tuesday he held St. Louis to one run and four hits through five innings, although Milwaukee eventually lost that game 6-3. And over his last four starts, he’s held opponents to six runs – only four earned – and 15 hits through 22 1/3 innings.

The Brewers are only 4-8 in Houser’s starts this season, but they’re 2-2 over his last four starts and should be better, considering the other loss was a 2-1 decision against Washington two weeks ago.

In his only career appearance against Houston, back in June of this season, Houser tossed two innings of one-hit, shutout ball, with three strikeouts, and picked up the W in a 6-3 Milwaukee victory.

Cole, by our stringent standards, is 20/27 on quality starts this year and six for his last seven. Last Wednesday he gave up four runs and six hits through 6 2/3 innings, with 14 strikeouts, in an 8-6 Astros win over the Rays. And over his last seven starts, he’s allowed just ten runs and 28 hits through 47 2/3 innings, with 69 whiffs!

Houston is 20-7 with Cole this season, 7-0 over his last seven starts.

This start will be Cole’s first against the Brewers since 2017 when he was with Pittsburgh, and that’s kind of already a long time ago when it comes to this Milwaukee lineup.

Monday’s Batting Splits

Houston is batting .272/.345/.481 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the top three lineups in the Majors in this split.

Milwaukee is batting .251/.333/.445 against RH pitching this season. But the Brewers haven’t scored more than four runs in any of their last eight games.

The Bullpens

The Astros bullpen owns a 3.80 ERA this season and a 1.23 WHIP while limiting foes to a .703 OPS. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the top four bullpens in Baseball.

The Brewers pen owns a 4.57 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP while allowing a .732 OPS.

Totals Report

• Unders are 71-60 in Astros games this season.
• Unders are 72-59 in Brewers games this season.
• Unders are 35-31 in games played at Miller Park this season.
• Overs are 2-0 in Astros-Brewers games this season

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Free MLB Pick

Cole gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up, and Houston owns advantages with both the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. Also, of the Astros’ 20 wins with Cole this year, 17 have come by at least two runs. So we’ll take Houston against the run line for our free MLB pick for Monday.