Houston Astros at NY Mets Odds, Analysis, Free Pick

Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Date: Saturday, June 29th, 4:10 ET
Location: Citi Field
TV: WPIX
Money Line: Astros -118/Mets -101 (Bet it FREE with a 100% bonus!)
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the New York Mets and the Astros on Saturday, June 29th at Citi Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 4:10 PM ET, the Astros and Mets face off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Citi Field in New York, and the Mets are favored on the money line (-101). The Astros’ money line odds are at -118, and the over/under line is sitting at 8 runs.

Both teams are 4-1 in their last five games, and the Astros are 2nd in the AL West, while the Mets are 3rd in the NL East. Today’s pitching matchup features Framber Valdez for the Astros and Tylor Megill for the Mets. This one will be televised on WPIX.

Astros vs. Mets Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Houston Astros: 40-41 SU / OU 29-48 / Runline 38-43
New York Mets: 40-39 SU / OU 41-36 / Runline 38-41

New York cruised to a 7-2 win over the Astros in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 6th inning, scoring four of their seven runs. As for the Astros, they scored their only two runs in the 3rd. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -110.

Jose Quintana only went four innings for the Mets but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. Dedniel Nunez got the win out of the bullpen. Ronel Blanco struggled on the mound for the Astros, giving up three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work.

Jeff McNeil and Tyrone Taylor each homered for the Mets, while Pete Alonso went 1/4 with two RBIs. Francisco Lindor also had a two-hit game and drove in a run.

Astros Records & Recent Play

The Astros are 40-41 overall and trail the Mariners by 5.5 games in the AL West. So far, they have gone 15-12 in divisional matchups. Houston is on a five-game winning streak as the favorite, and they are 31-32 when favored this year. As for their overall record as the favorite, the Astros are 9 games above .500 at 31-32.

At home, the Astros have gone 24-19 compared to 16-22 on the road. Houston’s series record is 14-11-1 this year, and they have won four straight series. Currently, they trail the Mets in the series, having lost the first game.

When the Astros win, they win big. Their average run margin in victories is 4.0, compared to -3.3 in losses. They have covered the run line in five straight games and are 38-43 overall on the run line this season. They are 22-21 vs. the run line at home, but just 16-22 on the road.

The Astros are on the road today against the New York Mets. Their combined run average is 8.8, and their over/under record is 29-48. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 8 runs. Their average over/under line is 9 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8 runs is 3-7-2. So far this season, 65.4% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.

Mets Records & Recent Play

The Mets are 40-39 overall and lead the Astros 1-0 in their series. New York has won four straight games, and they are 8-2 over their last 10 games. In the NL East, the Mets trail the Phillies by 12.5 games and are 3rd in the division with an 11-10 record against other NL East teams.

At home, the Mets are 21-23 this year and 19-16 on the road. New York has won eight straight games at home, and they are 6-10 as the home underdog this year. The Mets have won four straight series on the road, and their overall series record is 13-12-3.

When betting the run line, the Mets have been a better play on the road this season, going 21-14 compared to 17-27 at home. They have covered the run line in five straight home games and are 24-15 as the underdog. The Mets’ average run differential in their wins is +3.5, while it is -3.2 in their losses.

The Mets have been a strong over team this season, with a 41-36 over/under record. Their games have averaged 9.5 runs per game, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8 runs, the over has gone 9-4. Overall, 44.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs, and their games have gone over in each of the last three games.

Pitching Matchup

Framber Valdez will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in seven innings of work. In that outing vs. the Orioles, he gave up just six hits and issued two walks. Looking back further, Valdez had a rough stretch in which he gave up five earned runs in three straight starts. His record for the season is 6-5, and he has an ERA of 3.68. Valdez has made eight quality starts this year and has a WHIP of 1.20. So far, he has allowed a total of seven home runs.

New York is sending right-hander Tylor Megill to the mound today vs. the Astros. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 2-4 with an ERA of 4.81. Megill’s WHIP for the season is 1.43, and opponents are batting .229 off him this year. In his 33 2/3 innings of work, Megill has a total of 1.0 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Megill took the loss vs. the Cubs, giving up six earned runs in three innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Astros vs. Mets Offense Outlook

Not only are the Astros the top hitting team in the league this season, but they also have the best team batting average in the league, at .264. They are also the top home run hitting team in the league and have the fewest strikeouts in the league. Overall, they are 5th in OPS and 4th in slugging percentage. Houston’s offense is averaging 4.6 runs per game and has been even better at home, where they are averaging 5.1 runs per contest.

Jose Altuve has been red hot of late, going 14/37 in his last eight games, with two homers and seven RBIs. For the season, he is batting .304 with 13 homers. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have been the Astros’ top power threats, with Alvarez leading the team with 41 RBIs and Tucker’s 19 homers being the best mark on the team and 7th best in the league.

As a team, the Mets are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.7 runs per contest. Overall, they are 4th in home runs and have the league’s 8th-best batting average. New York also does a good job of making contact, as they have the 6th fewest strikeouts in the league.

Brandon Nimmo has struggled for the Mets this season, batting just .240, but he does lead the team with 46 RBIs and is 3rd on the team with 12 homers. Over his last six games, he has gone 5/21 with three homers. Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are also near the top of the Mets’ home run leaderboard, with 13 and 17 homers, respectively. Lindor has gone 10/27 in his last six games, while Alonso has three homers in his last five games.

Free Astros vs. Mets MLB Pick

Tylor Megill has gone 2-2 so far in the month of June, but he hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any of his outings. He also gave up six earned runs to the Cubs his last time out. On the other side, Framber Valdez had one rough outing this month, but aside from that he’s been really good for the Astros. I’m going with Houston on the money line on Saturday.

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