Capping the Bases: Handicapping Bullpens
by Predictem.com Staff
Bullpens are tough to handicap but are a “must do” for the serious sports bettor. You pretty much have to know a team very well in order to cap their bullpen, as certain managers run certain pitchers out to the mound very sparsely/often. Rubber arm pitchers such as Jesse Orosco who we believe could have pitched 7 days a week or closers which only pitch once or twice every few days must be labeled as such. You also need to take a gander at the past couple days box scores to see which relievers were used and for how many innings. This will help you form an opinion on whether or not they may or may not be available for use in the game your looking to bet.
We like to keep track of who has been used recently, who we think is available, what the ERA and WHIP are for these pitchers, what their season stats are and how hot/cold they’ve been over the last week to ten days.. We don’t really get much deeper than that such as digging into bullpen pitcher vs. hitter stats because there are only so many hours in the day and we’d need a team of cappers in order to accurately assess that situation.
Another scenario to keep an eye on is team bullpen ERA over the past handful of games. While the past is no indication of how the future will play out, it’s one more variable of supporting evidence to use to help you form a hypothesis on who will win the game. The info will indeed work for you more times than it will work against you. Keep in mind that even the best handicappers only hit 60% of the time so you need every bullet in the gun to grind out profits and win long term.
While this information takes a lot of time to gather up, it can provide huge rewards for your bankroll!