Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS Game 5 Predictions: Can Cleveland Extend the Series?

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Date: Saturday, October 19th, 8:08 ET
Location: Progressive Field
TV: None
Money Line: Yankees -118/Guardians -101
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Cleveland Guardians and the Yankees on Saturday, October 19th at Progressive Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Carlos Rodon will start for the Yankees on Saturday, and he will be facing off against Tanner Bibee for the Guardians. The game will be getting started at 8:08 PM ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Guardians are 1st in the AL Central, while the Yankees are 1st in the AL East.

New York is currently favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. Cleveland comes into the game on a two-game losing streak, while the Yankees have an overall record of 94-68.

Yankees vs. Guardians Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

New York Yankees: 94-68 SU / OU 90-75 / Runline 88-82
Cleveland Guardians: 92-69 SU / OU 73-85 / Runline 85-85

It was a high-scoring game in the most recent game of this Yankees vs. Guardians series. New York went into the matchup as slight favorites at -124 and picked up an 8-6 win. The Yankees offense only had two more hits than the Guardians and struck out 14 times, but still picked up a win.

Cleveland had a late rally in the 7th and 8th innings, scoring three runs in each frame, but could only muster one more run in the 9th. As for the Yankees, they scored two runs in the 1st and added three insurance runs in the 6th. Heading into the game, the Yankees had scored the most runs in the 1st inning of any team in the league.

Luis Gil got the start for the Yankees, going just four innings while giving up two hits and two earned runs. He finished with three strikeouts but issued three walks. Mark Leiter Jr. got the win out of the bullpen, and Tommy Kahnle got the save. Emmanuel Clase had a rough outing for the Guardians, taking the loss.

Yankees Records & Recent Play

Leading their series against Cleveland 3-1, the Yankees are on the road for game five, looking to close things out. New York finished the regular season with a 94-68 record, going 44-37 at home and 50-31 on the road. As favorites, they went 82-62 while posting an 18-8 mark as underdogs.

New York’s run line record for the season is 88-82, including 51-34 on the road. As favorites, they went 66-78 against the run line while going 22-4 as underdogs. The Yankees’ games have averaged 9.1 total runs this season, and their over/under record is 90-75. The over has hit in their last three games.

Guardians Records & Recent Play

Facing a must-win game five against New York, Cleveland looks to avoid elimination as they trailed 3-1 in the series. The Guardians finished the regular season with a 92-69 record, going 50-30 at home and 42-39 on the road. They’ve lost two straight games.

During the regular season, Cleveland went 85-85 against the run line, with a +0.5 average run margin per game. At home, they were 42-43 against the run line. The Guardians’ over/under record is 73-85, and the over has hit in their last three games. Today’s 7.5-run line is below their season average of 8.3 runs.

Pitching Matchup

New York is sending left-hander Carlos Rodón to the mound today vs. the Guardians. He has made 32 starts this season and has a record of 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA. Rodón’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.22. In his 32 starts, he has turned in 16 quality starts and is averaging 10.03 strikeouts per nine innings. Rodón most recently faced the Guardians on October 14th, where he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that outing, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts.

Tanner Bibee will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Yankees today, as he gave up two earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings of work on October 15th. In that outing, he gave up a home run. Bibee has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 12-8 with an ERA of 3.47. Looking at his home/away splits, he has a record of 7-5 on the road with a 3.57 ERA compared to 5-4 at home with a 4.30 ERA. Opponents are batting .225 off Bibee this season.

Yankees vs. Guardians Offense Outlook

Not only do the Yankees lead the league in home runs, but they are also the top-scoring team in the MLB this season. Their average of 5 runs per game is also the best mark in the league. The Yankees are also one of the best teams in terms of getting on base, as they are the top-ranked team in terms of walks and have an OBP of .333.

Over the team’s last nine games, Giancarlo Stanton has gone 9/31 with four homers, and Gleyber Torres has gone 11/35 with a home run. Aaron Judge comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak, and for the season, he is batting .322 with a league-leading 144 RBIs and 58 homers.

Heading into today’s game, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the MLB. At home, they have been a bit better, putting up 4.7 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .238, which is 14th in the league, and are also 11th in home runs. The team’s top two home run hitters are José Ramírez and Josh Naylor, who have 39 and 31 homers, respectively.

Over his last ten games, José Ramírez is batting .265 with three homers and nine RBIs. For the season, he is batting .279 and is 3rd in the league with 118 RBIs. Kyle Manzardo is also on a three-game hitting streak, and Steven Kwan has been hot of late, going 15/37 in his last nine games.

Free Yankees vs. Guardians MLB Pick

The Guardians confidence will be put to the test tonight, as they are not only down 3-1, but Emmanual Clase, who was dominant all season, is really struggling right now. Another thing working against them is that Tanner Bibee is working on three days’ rest after getting hit around early when he faced the Yankees on the 15th. All of this, and I think getting the Yankees at -118 is a steal.