Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS Game 1 Picks and Predictions

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
Date: Monday, October 14th, 7:38 ET
Location: Yankee Stadium
TV: TBS
Money Line: Guardians +139/Yankees -162
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the New York Yankees and the Guardians on Monday, October 14th at Yankee Stadium. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Carlos Rodon and the Yankees are the slight favorite on the money line (-162), while the Guardians are +139. This AL matchup is set for 7:38 PM ET from Yankee Stadium in New York, and the forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 50s.

Cleveland will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they are 92-69 and 1st in the AL Central. New York is 1st in the AL East with a record of 94-68. Alex Cobb will start for the Guardians, and he will be facing off against a Yankees team that has Carlos Rodon on the mound.

Guardians vs. Yankees Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Cleveland Guardians: 92-69 SU / OU 70-84 / Runline 84-82
New York Yankees: 94-68 SU / OU 87-74 / Runline 85-81

Guardians Records & Recent Play

Led by a big game by Lane Thomas at the plate, the Guardians are coming off a 7-3 win over the Tigers to close out their series. Thomas went 2/4 with five RBIs and a homer. The Guardians really broke things open with a five-run 2nd inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Guardians were the slight underdog at -102.

Matthew Boyd got the start for the Guardians, going two innings, and didn’t give up a run. However, he did issue three walks and needed 51 pitches to get through the outing. Tim Herrin picked up the win out of the bullpen and the Guardian’s save went to Emmanuel Clase.

Against the run line, Cleveland went 84-82 this season, including 43-40 on the road. As underdogs, their run line record is 37-26. The Guardians’ games have averaged 8.2 total runs, while today’s over/under line sits at 7.5. Their over/under record for the season is 70-84, and the over has hit in their last two games.

Yankees Records & Recent Play

The Yankees’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Royals, closing out their series with a 3-1 win. After allowing one run to the Royals in the bottom of the first, the Yankees responded with a run of their own. New York went on to add another run in the 5th inning and closed things out with a 3rd run in the 6th.

Gerrit Cole put together a good start for the Yankees, going seven innings giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. New York’s offense was carried by Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton, who each had two hits and scored one run apiece.

New York finished the regular season with an 85-81 run line record, with a +0.9 run differential per game. At home, their run line record was 35-48. The Yankees’ over/under record for the season is 87-74, and the under has hit in their last three games. Today’s 7.5-run line is lower than 86.4% of their games this season.

Pitching Matchup

Getting the start for the Cleveland Guardians is Alex Cobb, who will be on the road against the Yankees. Cobb is 2-1 on the season, with his most recent outing coming in a loss to the Tigers, where he went three innings and gave up two earned runs.

New York is sending left-hander Carlos Rodón to the mound today vs. the Guardians. This year, he has made 32 starts and has a record of 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA. Rodón’s WHIP for the season is 1.22. In his 33 appearances, he has turned in 16 quality starts and is averaging 10.03 strikeouts per nine innings. Rodón has a home record of 9-3 and an ERA of 4.0 compared to 7-7 with a 5.25 ERA on the road. Most recently, he took the loss vs. the Royals, giving up four earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work.

Guardians vs. Yankees Offense Outlook

Jose Ramirez has been a big run producer for the Guardians this season, as his 118 RBIs are 3rd in the league and lead the team. He also has a team-high 39 homers and is batting .279. Josh Naylor is 2nd on the team with 31 homers but is batting just .243 for the season. Naylor is also 6th in the league in RBIs, with 108.

Steven Kwan is currently on a five-game hitting streak and has gone 11/21 in his last five games. Over his last six games, Lane Thomas has two homers and is 6/23. Thomas also has a three-game hitting streak.

So far this season, the Yankees have been the top home run hitting team in the league and are also 3rd in the league in scoring at five runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .248 (7th) and have the league’s top offense in terms of RBIs.

Over his last eight games, Giancarlo Stanton has gone 9/29 with two homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .288 and is 2nd on the team with 109 RBIs. Aaron Judge has really struggled of late, going just 5/24 in his last seven games. However, he still leads the league with 144 RBIs and is batting .322 for the season.

Free Guardians vs. Yankees MLB Pick

The Yankees are the heavy favorite heading into this one, but Carlos Rodon struggled in his only outing of the post-season so far, giving up four earned runs vs the Royals. Alex Cobb also didn’t pitch well, his last time out. For game one, I’d actually look to the total, as I see this game easily going over 7.5 runs. My pick for game one is to take the over.