Game 2 Pick: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Wednesday, October 4th, 8:08 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: ESPN
Money Line: Marlins +130/Phillies -155
Total Line: 8
Betting Preview
Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Marlins on Wednesday, October 4th at Citizens Bank Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.
Betting Odds
| ML | RL | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | +130 | +1.5 | O 8 (-110) |
| PHI | -155 | -1.5 | U 8 (-111) |
Marlins vs. Phillies Projected Lineup
| Batting Order | Position | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 1 | 2B |
| Jorge Soler | 2 | DH |
| Josh Bell | 3 | 1B |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4 | CF |
| Jake Burger | 5 | 3B |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 6 | LF |
| Jesús Sánchez | 7 | RF |
| Garrett Hampson | 8 | SS |
| Jacob Stallings | 9 | C |
| Braxton Garrett | – | SP |
| Batting Order | Position | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 1 | LF |
| Trea Turner | 2 | SS |
| Nick Castellanos | 3 | RF |
| Bryce Harper | 4 | DH |
| Alec Bohm | 5 | 1B |
| J.T. Realmuto | 6 | C |
| Bryson Stott | 7 | 2B |
| Edmundo Sosa | 8 | 3B |
| Johan Rojas | 9 | CF |
| Aaron Nola | – | SP |
Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record
Miami Marlins: 84-77 SU / OU 75-84 / Runline 74-89
The Marlins head into today’s game vs. the Phillies with an overall record of 84-77. This mark has them sitting 3rd in the NL East. Currently, they are 20 games out of the division lead. Over their last five games, they are 3-2 and have a road and home record of 38-43 and 46-35, respectively. Miami’s overall series record sits at 24-25-1.
- The Marlins have two straight losses vs. the runline and have a season-long run margin of -0.4.
- The Marlins have been favored in 46.0% of their games and have runline records of 35-46 and 39-43 at home and on the road, respectively
- So far, the Marlins have an over/under record of just 75-84.
Heading into today’s action, the Phillies’ record of 90-72 has them sitting 2nd in the NL East. Currently, they are 14 games out of the division lead. Over their last five games, they are 2-3 and have a road and home record of 41-40 and 49-32, respectively. Philadelphia’s overall series record sits at 29-18-3.
- The Phillies have covered the runline in two straight games and have a season-long run margin of 0.5.
- The Phillies have been favored in 68.1% of their games and have runline records of 35-47 and 37-44 at home and on the road, respectively
- So far, the Phillies have an over/under record of just 75-78.
Pitching Matchup
| Pitcher | Appearances | Started | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 31 | 30 | 159 | 9-7 | 3.66 | 1.15 | 20 |
The Marlins will turn to starter Braxton Garrett who has an overall record of 9-7. Through 31 appearances his ERA stands at 3.66 with a K/9 figure of 8.79. So far, he has put together of FIP of 3.68 to go along with an OBP of .287.
After a loss against the Mets, Braxton Garrett is coming off a performance where he gave up four runs on three hits over four innings.
| Pitcher | Appearances | Started | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 32 | 32 | 193 | 12-9 | 4.46 | 1.15 | 32 |
The Phillies will turn to starter Aaron Nola who has an overall record of 12-9. After 32 appearances, his ERA is 4.46 and he has a K/9 figure of 9.39. Also, he has compiled a FIP of 4.03 and an OBP of .276.
Despite finishing with a quality start in his last outing, Aaron Nola did not factor into the decision in the Phillies’ 3-2 win over the Pirates. He surrendered one run on four hits across 6 2/3 innings of work.
Marlins vs. Phillies Offense Outlook
With 165 games under their belt, the Marlins are currently 25th in the league, averaging 4.1 runs per game. Miami’s home run ranking is 20th, with the team having hit 166 long balls. The team’s batting average, including .232 on the road and .269 at home, is .259.
Miami Marlins Team Hitting Stats
| Team | Games | Runs | HR | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | 165 | 4.1 (25th) | 166 (20th) | .259 (4th) | .316 (14th) | .316 (14th) |
Miami Marlins Top Hitters: Last Five Games
| Player | BA | H | R | HR | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell | .375 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .625 |
| Jorge Soler | .312 | 4 | 3 | 0 | .396 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | .150 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .350 |
| Jon Berti | .150 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .150 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | .340 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .340 |
The Phillies have played 164 games so far and are ranked 8th in the league with an average of 4.9 runs per game. In terms of home runs, they are 7th (220) and their overall batting average stands at .256. This includes a BA of .241 on the road and .256 at home.
Philadelphia Phillies Top Hitters vs. Lefties
| Player | BA | HR | SLG | WOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos | .324 | 8 | .561 | .390 |
| Alec Bohm | .305 | 12 | .597 | .383 |
| Bryce Harper | .289 | 8 | .510 | .374 |
| Trea Turner | .229 | 9 | .426 | .304 |
| Bryson Stott | .284 | 3 | .385 | .322 |
Philadelphia Phillies Top Hitters: Last Five Games
| Player | BA | H | R | HR | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | .197 | 4 | 2 | 2 | .517 |
| Trea Turner | .583 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .861 |
| Brandon Marsh | .217 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .500 |
| Alec Bohm | .188 | 3 | 1 | 1 | .438 |
| Bryson Stott | .333 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .417 |
Free MLB Pick
The Marlins were a great story this season, as very few had them making their way into the playoffs. However, look for the season to come to an end, as Aaron Nola and the Phillies should take care of business. I’m taking the Phillies straight-up.
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