Expert Picks and Predictions: Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers – Oct 7th

by | Last updated Oct 7, 2023 | mlb

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Date: Saturday, October 7th, 9:20 ET
Location: Dodger Stadium
TV: TBS
Money Line: Diamondbacks +166/Dodgers -203
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Diamondbacks on Saturday, October 7th at Dodger Stadium. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
ARI +166 +1.5 O 8 (-110)
LAD -203 -1.5 U 8 (-110)

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Projected Lineup

Batting Order Position
Ketel Marte 1 2B
Corbin Carroll 2 CF
Tommy Pham 3 RF
Christian Walker 4 1B
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 5 LF
Evan Longoria 6 DH
Emmanuel Rivera 7 3B
Geraldo Perdomo 8 SS
Gabriel Moreno 9 C
Merrill Kelly SP


Batting Order Position
Mookie Betts 1 2B
Freddie Freeman 2 1B
Will Smith 3 C
Max Muncy 4 3B
J.D. Martinez 5 DH
Jason Heyward 6 RF
David Peralta 7 LF
James Outman 8 CF
Miguel Rojas 9 SS
Clayton Kershaw SP


Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Arizona Diamondbacks: 84-78 SU / OU 72-84 / Runline 90-74
Los Angeles Dodgers: 100-62 SU / OU 88-66 / Runline 91-71

Heading into their game vs. the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks have a record of 84-78 and have dropped four straight games. In the NL West, they are in 2nd place and have an overall series record of 29-20-2. At home, they have gone 43-38 and 41-40 on the road.

  • The Diamondbacks have covered the runline in two straight games and have a season-long run margin of -0.1.
  • The Diamondbacks have been favored in 45.1% of their games and have runline records of 44-37 and 46-37 at home and on the road, respectively
  • So far, the Diamondbacks have an over/under record of just 72-84.

The Dodgers head into today’s game in first place in the NL West on a record of 100-62. Over their last ten games, they have put together an above .500 record of 6-4. At home, Los Angeles is 53-28 and 47-34 on the road. Their overall series record comes in at 32-16-1.

  • The Dodgers have covered the runline in 56.2% of their games and have an average run margin of 1.3
  • The Dodgers have been favored in 85.2% of their games and have runline records of 42-39 and 49-32 at home and on the road, respectively
  • The over has hit in 57% of the Dodgers’ 162 games at 88-66.

Pitching Matchup

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Merrill Kelly 30 30 177 12-8 3.29 1.19 20


Today will be Merrill Kelly’s 31st appearance this season, and he has an overall record of 12-8. His current ERA stands at 3.29 and OBP allowed of .289. So far, he struckout 187 batters and has a WHIP of 1.19. On the road, his ERA is 4.26 compared to 2.77 at home.

Even though Kelly finished with a quality start in his most recent outing, the Diamondbacks still lost to the Astros by a score of 1-0. For the game, he allowed five hits, leading to one earned run. This statline came across seven innings.

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Clayton Kershaw 24 24 131 13-5 2.46 1.06 19


Clayton Kershaw heads into the game with an overall record of 13-5 and an ERA of 2.46. In his 14 appearances on the road, he has an ERA of 3.56 and record of 6-4. At home, he has put together a mark of 7-1 and ERA of 1.70. His season-long WHIP stands at 1.06, accompanied by a batting average allowed of .203. Teams facing him have amassed a slugging percentage of .358.

In Clayton Kershaw’s last outing, the Dodgers lost by a score of 2-1 to the Giants. In the game, he allowed two runs on five hits over 5 1/3 innings.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Offense Outlook

After 165 games, the Diamondbacks are ranked 14th in the league with an average of 4.6 runs per game. Arizona ranks 20th in home runs (166) while their overall batting average is .250. On the road, they have a BA of .232 and .256 at home.

Arizona Diamondbacks Team Hitting Stats

Team Games Runs HR BA OBP SLG
Diamondbacks 165 4.6 (14th) 166 (20th) .250 (10th) .322 (10th) .322 (10th)


Arizona Diamondbacks Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Corbin Carroll .375 5 3 1 .771
Ketel Marte .217 3 1 1 .366
Gabriel Moreno .208 3 1 1 .458
Christian Walker .188 3 1 0 .250
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .200 4 0 0 .250


The Dodgers have played 164 games and are currently ranked 2nd in the league, averaging 5.6 runs per game. Los Angeles ranks 2nd in home runs, (249) and have a collective batting average of .257, including .253 on the road and .245 at home.

Los Angeles Dodgers Top Hitters vs. Righties

Player BA HR SLG WOBA
Freddie Freeman .330 17 .549 .404
Mookie Betts .309 25 .546 .405
Will Smith .270 13 .437 .348
David Peralta .256 7 .388 .292
James Outman .249 22 .489 .361


Los Angeles Dodgers Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Will Smith .416 3 3 1 .916
Freddie Freeman .333 4 3 1 .667
J.D. Martinez .194 2 1 1 .528
Kiké Hernández .125 1 1 1 .500
James Outman .111 1 1 0 .111


Free MLB Pick

In a matchup of NL West rivals, the Dodgers are the heavy favorite to take game one. In his career, Merrill Kelly is 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA. Look for this trend to continue as the Dodgers take game one. I’m feeling confident enough to grab them on the runline.

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