Diamondbacks vs. Braves Analysis Moneyline Pick 7/31/22

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Sunday July 31st, 01:35 ET

Location: Truist Park

TV: Bally Sports Southeast

Money Line: Diamondbacks +190 / Braves -230

Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

Arizona: Merrill Kelly (10-5, 3.04)
Atlanta: Max Fried (10-3, 2.73)

Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Daulton Varsho CF
Alek Thomas CF
Buddy Kennedy 2B
Josh Rojas 3B
Geraldo Perdomo SS
Carson Kelly C
Ketel Marte 2B
Christian Walker 1B
Jordan Luplow RF
Merrill Kelly P

Braves Projected Lineup

Marcell Ozuna LF
Robinson Canó 2B
Eddie Rosario LF
Travis d’Arnaud C
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Austin Riley 3B
Michael Harris II CF
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Max Fried P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Arizona Diamondbacks: 45-55-0 SU / OU 44-52-4 / Run Line W/L 57-43-0
Atlanta Braves: 61-41-0 SU / OU 51-47-4 / Run Line W/L 53-49-0

The Atlanta Braves host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday, July 31st at Truist Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:35 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-230), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Diamondbacks come into this matchup having suffered a 4-run loss to the Braves (6-2). On their way to giving up 6 runs, the Diamondbacks staff allowed 11 hits. With their 4 hits, the Diamondbacks could only muster 2 runs. The loss came as Arizona was the betting underdog, getting 190.0 on the moneyline. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 10.0 runs. This outcome pushed Arizona’s over-under record further below .500 at 44-52-4.

The Diamondbacks are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +6. Arizona’s offense heads into action averaging 4.6 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.26. Arizona’s overall series record is just 11-16-5.

The Atlanta Braves will be looking to pick up another win, as they most recently defeated the Diamondbacks by 4 runs (6-2). For the game, the pitching staff held the Diamondbacks to 2 runs on 4 hits. In the victory, the Braves came up with 11 hits and 6 runs. Heading into action, Atlanta was the favorite at -210.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 88 games, winning at a rate of 66.0%. With this result, the Braves and Diamondbacks combined to fall below the over-under line of 10.0 runs. Atlanta still has an above .500 over-under record at (51-47-4).

Across their last 5 contests, the Braves are above .500, going 3-2. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +3 (last 5). Atlanta is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 4.6 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.75. On the season, Atlanta has won more than half of their series, going 16-11-5.

Pitching Matchup

Merrill Kelly gets the start for the Diamondbacks, with an overall record of 10-5. Currently, Kelly has an ERA of just 3.04 while pitching an average of 5.9 innings per outing. Across his previous appearances, the right-hander has a batting average allowed of 0.228. This season, Kelly has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 0.53 per 9 innings. Per game, Merrill Kelly is averaging 4.8, on a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. Command has been a problem for Kelly, as he is giving up 2.74 walks per outing.

In today’s game, Atlanta turns to starter Max Fried. For the year, he has a record of 10-3. Through 20 appearances, Fried has an ERA of just 2.73 while averaging 6.25 innings per appearance. In his previous outings, right-hander opponents are hitting 0.241 off the right-hander. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Fried, as he is allowing just 0.43 per 9 innings. Per game, Max Fried is averaging 5.85, on a strikeout percentage of 23.0%. Command has been a problem for Fried, as he is giving up 1.58 walks per outing.

Arizona vs Atlanta History

Today’s matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves will be their 6th meeting of the season. Atlanta holds the edge in the series at 3-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-4. The average run total in these games is 9.14 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.6 runs. Dating back to last season, Atlanta picked up 4 wins compared to 3, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 5-2, with the average run total being 9.14 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 4.86 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona’s last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games when playing Atlanta
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing Arizona
• Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves Prediction

Heading into Sunday’s National League matchup between Arizona and Atlanta, the Braves would appear to be the easy choice to pick up the win. However, I recommend taking the Diamondbacks to continue their win streak with Merrill Kelly on the mound. Arizona has won 4 straight games with Kelly as the starting pitcher. I like the Diamondbacks on the moneyline.