Diamondbacks vs. Astros MLB Predictions: Joe Jensen’s Pick

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Date: Sunday, September 8th, 7:10 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: ESPN
Money Line: Diamondbacks +125/Astros -148
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Houston Astros and the Diamondbacks on Sunday, September 8th at Minute Maid Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 7:10 PM ET, the Diamondbacks and Astros will square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Minute Maid Park in Houston and has the Astros as the money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -148. Arizona has a line of +125 and will be looking to end a three-game losing streak. Ryne Nelson is starting for the Diamondbacks, and Houston is going with Justin Verlander.

Arizona comes in with a record of 79-64, while the Astros are 1st in the AL West with a record of 77-65. Verlander will be looking to keep Houston’s two-game winning streak alive. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs, and this game will be televised on ESPN.

Diamondbacks vs. Astros Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Arizona Diamondbacks: 79-64 SU / OU 82-54 / Runline 74-69
Houston Astros: 77-65 SU / OU 57-80 / Runline 73-69

Houston cruised to an easy 11-5 win over the Diamondbacks in the most recent game of this series. The Astros had a huge 2nd inning, scoring four of their eleven runs. As for the Diamondbacks, they scored their first run in the 4th and added their final four runs in the 6th.

Yusei Kikuchi only went six innings for the Astros but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts but did not get the win, as that went to Ryan Pressly out of the bullpen. Eduardo Rodriguez had a rough outing for the Diamondbacks, giving up four runs in just four innings of work.

Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena each homered for the Astros, while Kevin Newman went deep for the Diamondbacks. Altuve, Pena, Yordan Alvarez, and Chas McCormick each had two RBIs for Houston’s offense.

Diamondbacks Records & Recent Play

Arizona is on the road today, and they are looking to snap a three-game losing streak, as they trail the Padres by 6.5 games for 2nd place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks are 79-64 overall and have gone 25-18 in divisional games this year.

The Diamondbacks have dropped three straight games as the underdog, and their record as the underdog is 34-38 this year. Arizona has been good as the favorite, going 45-26. They are 40-33 on the road compared to 39-31 at home. Looking at their overall series record, the Diamondbacks are 25-16-4 and have won three straight series on the road.

Arizona has been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 42-31. However, they have failed to cover the run line in their last two road games. The Diamondbacks have been a better bet as an underdog this season, going 44-28 ATS. Their average run margin in winning games is 4.1, while it is -3.8 in losing games.

The Diamondbacks are on the road in Houston tonight, where the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. Arizona’s games have averaged 10.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 82-54. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 29-17. Overall, 54 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which is 37.8% of their games this season. The over has hit in their last two games.

Astros Records & Recent Play

The Astros are 77-65 overall and lead the AL West by 5.5 games over the Mariners. Houston has taken the first two games of their series vs. the Diamondbacks, and they lead the series overall, 24-19-2. Over the last 10 games, the Astros are 7-3.

At home, the Astros are 41-29 this season and an even 36-36 on the road. As the favorite, the Astros are 59-46 this year and 18-19 as the underdog. Houston’s home win streak is up to six straight games.

When it comes to betting the run line, the Astros have been a solid play this season, with a record of 73-69. They have been especially good at home, going 34-36 against the run line. The Astros have been favored in 105 games this season and have gone 48-57 against the run line in those games. In games they have won, they have an average run margin of 3.8 runs, while in games they have lost, they have an average run margin of -3.1 runs.

The Houston Astros are at home tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. The Astros have had a combined run average of 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 57-80. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 17-26. This season, 29.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs.

Pitching Matchup

Ryne Nelson will be looking to build off his last outing, where he faced the Giants and picked up the win. In that start, he went 6 2/3 innings and gave up two earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Nelson has made 24 starts and 12 of them have been quality starts. Nelson’s ERA for the season is 4.15, along with a record of 10-6. For the year, he has allowed 16 home runs and is averaging 7.62 strikeouts per nine innings. So far, he has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 6-3 and an ERA of 3.89 compared to 4-3 with a 6.18 ERA at home.

Justin Verlander will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Reds, as he gets the start for the Astros today vs. the Diamondbacks. In that start, he took the loss, giving up five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Looking back over his last three starts, Verlander has given up at least two homers in each outing. His record for the season is 3-5, and his ERA is 4.52. Out of his 13 starts, Verlander has made five quality starts and is averaging 7.91 strikeouts per nine innings. At home, he is 0-2 with a 5.27 ERA.

Diamondbacks vs. Astros Offense Outlook

Arizona has been the best offensive team in baseball this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.6 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .261, which is 2nd in the league, and they also lead the league in on-base percentage. The Diamondbacks have been hitting for power this season, as they are 6th in home runs and have the league’s 3rd best slugging percentage.

Ketel Marte has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 30 homers are the best on the team and 12th in the league. Eugenio Suarez has also been a big power threat, with 25 homers this season. Over his last 10 games, Suarez has gone 12/35 with five homers and nine RBIs. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is also a power threat, as he has 17 homers and is batting .274.

Heading into today’s game, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .261 as a team, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Houston also does a good job of making contact, as they have the 4th fewest strikeouts in the league.

Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top offensive player this season, as he leads the team with a .313 batting average and his 32 home runs are the best mark on the team and 10th in the league. Over his last seven games, Alvarez has gone 9/27 with four homers and nine RBIs. Jose Altuve is also swinging a hot bat right now, as he is on a four-game hitting streak and is batting .300 for the season.

Free Diamondbacks vs. Astros MLB Pick

It’s been rough going for Justin Verlander of late, as he’s given up at least four earned runs in three straight outings, and since returning in August, he hasn’t gone more than five innings. Given that he also picked up a win since his return, and Ryne Nelson is 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA in his last seven starts, I like Arizona at +125 tonight.