Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Pick 6/13/19

Detroit Tigers (25-39) vs. Kansas City Royals (21-46), 6/13/19
Time: 8:05 pm ET Thursday, June 13
Where: TD Ameritrade Park, Omaha, NE
Listed Pitchers: Matthew Boyd (5-4, 3.08 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) vs. Homer Bailey (4-6, 5.90, 1.51)
TV: ESPN, FS-Detroit
Moneyline: Tigers -125/Royals +115 (MyBookie)
Over/Under: 8.5

After splitting the first two games of this AL Central series in Kansas City the Tigers and Royals will play a rubber match at the home of the College World Series in Omaha Thursday night. Which way are we going here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened this game at about a pick ’em, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then pushed the Tigers into -125 favorites, and dipped that total to 8.5.

Tigers vs. Royals Set-Up

Kansas City took the opener of this series Tuesday night at Kauffman Stadium 3-2 but Detroit took Wednesday’s game by that same score. The teams now move to Omaha for Thursday’s game.

The Tigers led Tuesday’s game 2-0 before the Royals scored once in the seventh inning and twice in the eighth for the come-from-behind victory. Detroit then evened this series by breaking a 2-2 tie with a run in the top of the eighth Wednesday night.

Even with Wednesday’s win the Tigers are only 3-7 over their last 10 games. At 25-39 overall Detroit is 9.5 games behind Texas in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

With Wednesday’s loss Kansas City is just 4-15 over its last 19 games. At 21-46 overall KC is tied with Baltimore for the worst record in baseball.

The Tigers now lead this season series with the Royals six games to two.

Thursday’s Starting Arms

Bailey, by our strict standards, is just 3/13 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last six. Last Friday he held the White Sox to three runs through six innings, but we don’t count that as a “quality” start because it’s a 4.50 ERA. And over his last five starts he’s allowed 18 earned runs and 28 hits through 20 innings.

On the season KC is 5-8 with Bailey, just 1-4 over his last five starts.

In his last two starts against the Tigers, one last year and one back in May of this season, Bailey allowed four runs and 10 hits through 14 innings. The Royals split those two games.

Lefty Boyd is 10/14 on quality starts this season and three for his last four. Last Friday he held the Twins to three runs on nine hits through seven innings of a game Detroit eventually lost 6-3. And over his last four starts he’s held foes to six runs and 25 hits through 24 innings, with 32 strikeouts against just two walks.

On the season Detroit is 6-8 with Boyd, and while it’s only 1-3 over his last four starts that’s not his fault.

Over his last six starts against Kansas City, five last year and one back in May of this season, Boyd allowed 16 ER and 35 hits through 33 1/3 innings. The Tigers split those six games.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

Detroit is batting .228/.289/.377 against right-handed pitching this season, which ranks this lineup among the worst in Baseball in this split. Tigers bats have also been held to three runs or less six times in their last seven games.

Kansas City is batting .227/.295/.357 against left-handed pitching, which ranks this lineup among the worst in Baseball in this split. Royals bats have also been held to three runs or less eight times over their last 10 games.

The Bullpens

The Tigers bullpen owns a 5.21 ERA this season and a 1.49 WHIP. But closer Shane Greene is 20/21 on save conversions.

The Royals pen owns a 4.81 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP.

Totals Report

• Overs are 34-26 in Tigers games this season.

• Overs are 32-31 in Royals games this season.

• Unders are 5-3 in Tigers-Royals games this season.

• Unders are 8-4 with Boyd this season.

Free MLB Pick

Detroit owns a clear advantage in the pitching match-up and that’s enough for us in this spot. We’re taking the Tigers here for our free MLB pick for Thursday.