Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees Pick 7/19/19

Colorado Rockies (46-50) at New York Yankees (62-33)
When: 7 p.m., Friday, July 19
Where: Yankee Stadium, New York

Moneyline: COL +200/NYY -230 (BetNow)
Runline: Rockies +1.5/Yanks -1.5
Total: 11

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Freeland (2-6, 7.39 ERA, 1.61 WHIP) vs. J.A. Happ (7-5, 4.93 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)

Travel vs. Rest

This matchup will be a battle of two distinct advantages thanks to the schedule maker. On the one hand, the Yankees had to play a pair of games yesterday, sweeping a doubleheader from the Rays, while the Rockies didn’t have a game. On the other, the Rockies just completed a home series against San Francisco, meaning Colorado had to cross two time zones to get to New York for this series. Not having to play could turn out to be a benefit for the Rocks, but will they actually be ready and adjusted to being on the east coast just 48 hours after playing their series with the Giants? Whichever team overcomes the handicap better will have the edge here.

Different Directions

The two squads aren’t just facing different travel situations; they’re also entering this contest in entirely different forms. The Yankees just took three of four from the Rays and now hold an eight-game lead over their nearest competitors in the division. New York owns the best record in the American League, and it looks like the Yankees have built themselves into the team to beat when the postseason rolls around.

Colorado, on the other hand, just dropped four straight to the Giants at home. Not only did the Rockies lose four in a row, they got outscored 40-15 in the four-game set and deservedly fell behind San Francisco in the standings, dropping into a tie for last in the NL West with San Diego. Last place isn’t that bad in a National League division, as every team in the Senior Circuit except the Marlins is within eight games of .500, but it’s still not exactly a place where the Rockies want to be.

Colorado is running out of time to get itself on track. With so many teams within shouting distance of the wild card, the Rockies have to decide on whether they’re in or out when it comes to trying for the playoffs. Jeff Brantley of 104.3 The Fan in Denver made the argument that the Rockies should sell rather than make a run at one game, and if Colorado continues its slump at New York, it’ll be hard to say he’s wrong.

Bombs Away!

I’m not sure how much longer Kyle Freeman can stay with the Rockies pitching the way that he has in 2019. He was an excellent pitcher a season ago, recording a 2.85 ERA, but in 2019, he has not been able to get anybody out. The last time that Freeman gave up fewer than three runs in a start was April 18 against Philadelphia, and since then, has given up an average of just under five runs per game. In his most recent contest, he allowed five runs on nine hits and didn’t make it to the fifth inning.

This game seems to be an unwise matchup against the Yankees in New York, as the Yankees possess the bats needed to make Freeman’s night a miserable one.

The Historicals

There is virtually no history here. The teams have met a mere 19 times in their past, with the Yankees winning six out of eight of their all-time meetings in New York. In short, these are not teams that know each other well.

Betting Trends

• The Rockies are 1-4 in Freeland’s past five road starts.
• The Rockies have won four straight against the AL East.
• The Yankees are 13-3 in their past 16 games against sub-.500 teams.
• The Yankees are 6-1 in Happ’s past seven starts on five days’ rest.
• The over is 7-0 in Freeland’s past seven starts.
• The over is 5-1-1 in the Yankees’ past seven interleague games against a team with a losing road record.

Weather Report

The heat will be a factor here, as the mercury will be pushing 93 degrees at first pitch in the Bronx.

Dan’s pick

I hate taking the runline, but it seems like the only play here. Throwing Freeland to the Yankees feels a little like throwing a steak into a pit of starving tigers. The Yankees are playing too well, and Freeland isn’t fooling anyone this season. Plus, the Rockies have the feel of a team that’s about to call it quits on this season and start building for 2020 with their younger players. Winning this series would do more harm than good for them, as a win could convince them that they could compete for a World Series this year.

They can’t and they won’t. Go with the Yankees on the run line to give your bet some juice.