Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick 8/25/21

Cincinnati Reds (69-58) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (77-49)
When: 8:10 p.m., Wednesday, August 25
Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee
Moneyline: CIN +160/MIL -180
Runline: Reds +1.5/Brewers -1.5
Total: 8
(Find the best sportsbook)

Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo (7-12, 4.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) vs. Brandon Woodruff (7-7, 2.48 ERA, 0.94 WHIP)

Finishing Blow

The Brewers might have finally delivered the knockout punch to the Reds in the NL Central race on Tuesday night, as they overcame a 4-1 deficit with six runs in the late innings to turn things around and claim their fourth straight victory over the Reds. More importantly, the Brewers bumped their lead on Cincinnati to 8.5 games with just 34 to play and only two more games against each other, likely putting the division out of reach for the Reds.

However, that’s not Cincinnati’s prime concern. The Reds instead have to make sure that the loss they suffered Tuesday doesn’t snowball and turn into a skid that costs them in the wild card race. If they’re being honest with themselves, the Reds probably knew that unless Milwaukee fell apart over the remainder of the schedule, they weren’t going to win the NL Central. But they have managed to catch San Diego and hold a one-game lead for the second wild card spot. Granted, that means finding a way past the Dodgers, but that’s better than not having the opportunity at all. However, the Padres sitting just one game back means the Reds can’t afford any slip-ups if they’re going to get themselves into that one-game crapshoot.

Slow Starting Offense

Brandon Woodruff would probably like to exchange some words with whoever came up with the formula for wins for a pitcher, because it hasn’t worked out well at all for the Brewer ace. Woodruff is usually outstanding in the early innings, but it doesn’t end up working out for him because his offense takes five or six innings to get going and sometimes never does. In his most recent start against the Reds, Woodruff gave up two runs (one unearned) over 5.2 innings of work in a 7-4 Milwaukee win, but got another no-decision because the Brewers didn’t start scoring until the seventh inning.

Because of that, Woodruff’s best plays have usually been first-five unders rather than on his team getting the win. In fact, the Brewers have actually lost six of Woodruff’s past eight starts because they’ve just given him little help in doing the job. An example of how this ridiculousness has gone up to eleven came two weeks ago against the Cubs, when the Brewers finally provided some offense in a 17-4 rout of Chicago. Did Woodruff get the win? Of course not; he was only able to pitch three innings that day and didn’t qualify for a decision.

Home Away From Home

Reds-Brewers has been a very weird series in 2021, and nobody can tell you that better than Luis Castillo. The Reds’ hurler has been involved in four of these games this season, and each time, you’ve been able to simply back the visiting team and collect your winnings.

Not only is that strange to see a total lack of home-field advantage here, but it’s also quite strange to see Castillo actually getting the job done away from Cincinnati. For the year, Castillo has a 5.27 ERA and a 2-7 record away from home, compared to a 4.35 ERA for the entire campaign and an overall mark of 7-12. This hasn’t been a good season for Castillo when he goes on the road, but for whatever reason, he seems to get things figured out whenever he sets foot in Wisconsin.

Betting Trends

• The Reds are 8-3 in their past 11 against the NL Central.
• The Reds are 9-4 in their past 13 as a road underdog.
• The Brewers are 5-2 in their past seven games as a home favorite.
• The Brewers are 35-16 in their past 51 against the NL Central.
• The over is 4-1 in the Reds’ past five as an underdog.
• The over is 13-4-1 in the Reds’ past 18 against the NL Central.
• The over is 5-1 in the Brewers’ past six games.
• The over is 6-2-1 in the Brewers’ past nine against a right-handed starter.
• The under is 6-1 in the past seven matchups in Milwaukee.
• The Reds are 8-2 in their past 10 matchups in Milwaukee.

Weather Report

With temperatures at 82 and hitting 90 with the humidity in Milwaukee, the Brewers have made an excellent case for more teams including a retractable roof on their stadiums. The wind is set to blow at five miles per hour toward right field, but I’d bet Milwaukee will choose to play with the roof closed.

Dan’s Pick

The Reds might have lost their past four to Milwaukee, but they tend to do pretty well on the road against the Brewers, who are likely to relax a bit because they’ve already done their job for this series. All they had to do was avoid a sweep and they’d keep Cincinnati at bay in the NL Central race.

As long as the Reds don’t feel disheartened by letting that game slip away, the value is with them in this one. My preferred bet is the under, but for the game, I’ll back Cincinnati.