Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Pick & Betting Analysis

by | Last updated Aug 2, 2023 | mlb

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Date: Wednesday, August 2nd, 8:05 ET
Location: Wrigley Field
TV: MARQ
Money Line: Reds +118/Cubs -139 (Tip: Learn about reduced juice! A GREAT investment!)
Total Line: 10

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Chicago Cubs and the Reds on Wednesday, August 2nd at Wrigley Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
CIN +118 +1.5 O 10 (-105)
CHC -139 -1.5 U 10 (-116)

Reds vs. Cubs Projected Lineup

 

Batting Order Position
Kevin Newman 1 3B
Matt McLain 2 2B
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 3 SS
Elly De La Cruz 4 1B
Spencer Steer 5 DH
Joey Votto 6 RF
Nick Senzel 7 LF
Tyler Stephenson 8 CF
TJ Friedl 9 C
Brandon Williamson SP

 

Batting Order Position
Nico Hoerner 1 2B
Seiya Suzuki 2 RF
Ian Happ 3 LF
Cody Bellinger 4 1B
Dansby Swanson 5 SS
Jeimer Candelario 6 3B
Christopher Morel 7 C
Yan Gomes 8 CF
Patrick Wisdom 9 DH
Drew Smyly SP

 

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Cincinnati Reds: 59-50 SU / OU 58-51 / Runline 69-40
Chicago Cubs: 54-53 SU / OU 56-46 / Runline 58-49

The Reds head into today’s game in first place in the NL Central on a record of 59-50. Over their last five games, they have put together an above .500 record of 3-2. At home, Cincinnati is 28-26 and 31-24 on the road. Their overall series record comes in at 16-13-4.

 

  • The Reds have covered the runline in 63.3% of their games and have an average run margin of -0.1
  • The Reds have been favored in 25.7% of their games and have runline records of 32-22 and 37-18 at home and on the road, respectively
  • The over has hit in 53% of the Reds’ 109 games at 58-51.

With an overall record of 54-53, the Cubs are in 3rd place in the NL Central, trailing by four games. Over their last ten games, they are above .500 at 8-2. On the road, the Cubs have a mark of 26-26 while going 28-27 at home. Their overall series mark stands at 17-12-4.

 

  • The Cubs have covered the runline in 54.2% of their games and have an average run margin of 0.6
  • The Cubs have been favored in 49.5% of their games and have runline records of 28-27 and 30-22 at home and on the road, respectively
  • The over has hit in 55% of the Cubs’ 107 games at 56-46.

Pitching Matchup

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Brandon Williamson 13 13 64 3-2 4.48 1.34 10

Cincinnati starter Brandon Williamson enters with an overall record of 3-2 and ERA of 4.48. His ERA on the road is 5.33 and 4.57 when pitching at home. Williamson’s season-long WHIP comes in at 1.34 with a batting average allowed of .243. Opposing teams have put together a slugging percentage of .444 against him.

The Reds picked up a win the last time Brandon Williamson took the mound, taking down the Dodgers by a score of 6-5. In 5 2/3 innings of work, he allowed eight hits and two earned runs while adding a W to his record.

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Drew Smyly 21 19 108 8-7 4.50 1.35 18

Drew Smyly heads into the game with an overall record of 8-7 and an ERA of 4.50. In his 11 appearances on the road, he has an ERA of 3.61 and record of 5-4. At home, he has put together a mark of 3-3 and ERA of 6.60. His season-long WHIP stands at 1.35, accompanied by a batting average allowed of .254. Teams facing him have amassed a slugging percentage of .457.

Chicago is hoping that Drew Smyly can help guide them to another win, as they defeated the Cardinals (3-2) the last time he pitched. He finished the game with one earned run on two hits across 4 1/3 innings.

Reds vs. Cubs Offense Outlook

This season, Cincinnati has been scoring an average of 4.9 runs per game, ranking them 6th in the league. In terms of home runs, they have hit 121 long balls, placing them in the middle of the pack. Their batting average of .253 ranks 8th in the league. On the road, the Reds are 4th in batting average, compared to 16th at home.

Cincinnati Reds Top Hitters On The Road

Player BA HR SLG WOBA
Spencer Steer .259 8 .454 .341
Tyler Stephenson .262 3 .377 .320
TJ Friedl .287 2 .378 .330
Jonathan India .221 8 .368 .293
Matt McLain .289 3 .434 .344

Cincinnati Reds Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Matt McLain .370 7 4 1 .743
Elly De La Cruz .300 7 5 1 .560
Spencer Steer .230 5 4 1 .460
Jake Fraley .300 5 3 1 .550
TJ Friedl .130 3 3 0 .170

This season, Chicago is ranked 5th in the league in terms of runs scored, with an average of 5 runs per game. Although they are not at the top of the league in home runs, they have hit a combined 127 long balls. The team’s current batting average of .256 ranks 6th in the league. On the road, their batting average ranks 15th compared to 8th at home.

Chicago Cubs Team Hitting Stats

Team Games Runs HR BA OBP SLG
Cubs 107 5 (5th) 127 (12th) .256 (6th) .334 (4th) .334 (4th)

Chicago Cubs Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Dansby Swanson .217 4 3 3 .717
Mike Tauchman .453 6 4 1 .693
Cody Bellinger .300 6 4 1 .450
Ian Happ .291 3 4 1 .750
Nico Hoerner .240 6 4 1 .440

Free MLB Pick

Sure, the Cubs are hot, and in baseball rising the hot team has always been a good bet. That said, Chicago starter Drew Smyly has been dismal this season and has been on the losing end in his two starts against the Reds this season. Cincinnati gives the ball to Brandon Williamson, who has been pitching well, allowing two or fewer runs in each of his past three starts. Take the Reds +121.

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