Cardinals vs. Reds Odds, Analysis, Predictions 8/29/22

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds
Date: Monday August 29th, 06:40 ET
Location: Great American Ball Park
TV: Bally Sports Ohio
Money Line: Cardinals -210 / Reds +170
Total Line: 9.5

STARTING PITCHING

St. Louis: Miles Mikolas (10-10, 3.35)
Cincinnati: Chase Anderson (0-0, 0)

Cardinals Projected Lineup

Paul DeJong SS
Yadier Molina C
Albert Pujols 1B
Lars Nootbaar RF
Tommy Edman 2B
Nolan Arenado 3B
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Dylan Carlson CF
Tyler O’Neill CF
Miles Mikolas P

Reds Projected Lineup

TJ Friedl CF
Jose Barrero SS
Nick Senzel CF
Jake Fraley LF
Colin Moran 1B
Kyle Farmer 3B
Austin Romine C
Donovan Solano 1B
Jonathan India 2B
Chase Anderson P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

St. Louis Cardinals: 74-54-0 SU / OU 62-62-4 / Run Line W/L 73-55-0
Cincinnati Reds: 50-76-0 SU / OU 64-60-2 / Run Line W/L 60-66-0

The Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday August 29th at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places St. Louis as the favorite (-210), with an OU line set at 9.5.

Recent Form

In their most recent game, St. Louis picked up a 3 run win over Atlanta (6-3). On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 3 runs on 10 hits. The Cardinals benefited from an offense that generated 6 runs on 6 hits. Heading into their last game, St. Louis was the betting favorite at -150.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 80 of their games, winning at a rate of 70.0%. Together, the Cardinals and Atlanta combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.5 runs. St. Louis once again has a .500 over-under record of 62-62-4.

In the Cardinals last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. Despite their recent success, their last 5 run margin comes in at -4. St. Louis’s offense heads into action averaging 5.0 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.88. So far, St. Louis has won over half of their 39 series played, going 21-10-8.

The Reds are coming off a tight loss to the Nationals, dropping the game 3-2. Even in the loss, the pitching staff allowed just 3 runs on 6 hits. The Reds offense ended the game with just 2 runs on 5 hits. Cincinnati dropped the game despite being favored at -120.0. So far, the team has won 39.0% of the games in which they were favored. With this result, the Reds and Nationals combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.5 runs. Even still, Cincinnati games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 64-60-2.

In their last 5 contests, the Reds have just 2 wins, going 2-3. Even though Cincinnati has notched just 2 in their last 5 games, they still have a positive run differential in this stretch (+1). In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate of 4.0, similar to their season long average of 4.25. Cincinnati has a below .500 series record of just 13-20-7.

Pitching Matchup

St. Louis will roll with Miles Mikolas (10-10) as their starter. To date, Mikolas has an ERA of 3.35 while lasting an average of 6.31 innings per appearance. Mikolas comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.227. So far, Mikolas has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.99 home runs per 9 innings. Per game, Miles Mikolas is averaging 4.65, on a strikeout percentage of 19.0%. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Mikolas is averaging 1.59 free passes per outing.

The Cincinnati Reds will turn to Chase Anderson, who has not pitched since last season. In 2021, Anderson made 14 outings for the Philadelphia Phillies, putting together a record of 2-4 and ERA of 6.75.

St. Louis vs Cincinnati History

Today’s matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds will be their 12th meeting of the season. St. Louis has the lead in the series at 7-4. The over-under record in this series sits at 5-6. The average run total in these games is 9.53 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.27 runs. Dating back to last season, Cincinnati picked up 10 wins compared to 9, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 11-7. Last year, the Cardinals and Reds averaged 9.53 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.11 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

• Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
• Reds are 24-55 in their last 79 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Reds are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Heading into Monday’s NL Central showdown between the Cardinals and Reds, I recommend taking the Cardinals to pick up the win and cover the runline. St. Louis is the heavy favorite, as not only are they the better overall team, but they have a huge advantage on the mound, as Chase Anderson will be taking the mound for the first time this year. On the other side, Miles Mikolas comes into the game with a WHIP of just 1.02.

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