Cardinals vs. Brewers Predictions: Joe Jensen’s MLB Picks (Sept 3rd)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Tuesday, September 3rd, 7:40 ET
Location: American Family Field
TV: BSWI
Money Line: Cardinals +123/Brewers -146
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cardinals on Tuesday, September 3rd at American Family Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 7:40 PM ET, the Cardinals and Brewers will face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are the heavy favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -146. The Cardinals have a record of 69-69, and they are starting Steven Matz. Aaron Civale is slated to start for the Brewers.

The over/under line for Tuesday’s game is currently 8.5 runs, and BSWI will be televising the game. On the money line, the Brewers are 81-57, while the Cardinals are 3rd in the NL Central.

Cardinals vs. Brewers Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

St. Louis Cardinals: 69-69 SU / OU 67-68 / Runline 68-70
Milwaukee Brewers: 81-57 SU / OU 73-56 / Runline 72-66

It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Cardinals by a score of 9-3. The Brewers offense only had three more hits than the Cardinals and struck out eight times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -166 on the money line.

This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Freddy Peralta for the Brewers and Andre Pallante for the Cardinals. Peralta only went 5 1/3 innings but gave up just three hits and two earned runs. On the other side, Pallante was tagged for five runs in five innings of work.

Milwaukee’s two and three hitters, Jackson Chourio and Willy Adames, each homered and combined for six RBIs. Rhys Hoskins also had a two RBI game at the plate.

Cardinals Records & Recent Play

St. Louis is at an even 69-69 overall as they are 12 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Cardinals lost the series opener vs. the Brewers, and they are 19-24 in divisional games this year. So far, they have gone 36-32 at home and 33-37 on the road.

This season, the Cardinals have been the favorite in 67 of their games, and they have gone 33-34 in those matchups. As the underdog, St. Louis is 36-35 this season. The Cardinals have won two straight series on the road, and their overall series record is 22-17-5.

When the Cardinals win, they tend to win big, with an average run margin of +2.7. When they lose, they tend to lose by an average of -3.6 runs. Their run line record is 68-70, and they are 34-34 ATS at home. As the underdog, they are 46-25 ATS, while as the favorite, they are just 22-45 ATS.

St. Louis is on the road today against the Brewers, and the O/U line is set at 8.5 runs. The Cardinals have an over/under record of 67-68 this season, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. When the O/U line is set at 8.5 runs, the Cardinals have gone over 29 times and under 17 times. Their games have had an average O/U line of 8 runs this season.

Brewers Records & Recent Play

Milwaukee is currently 81-57 overall, putting them in 1st place in the NL Central. They hold a 10-game lead over the Cubs for the division. So far, they have gone 30-17 against other teams in the NL Central. The Brewers have won three straight games at home, and they are 41-25 at home this year.

As the favorite, the Brewers have gone 47-32 this year and 34-25 as the underdog. Milwaukee has an overall series record of 24-15-4 this year and have won three straight series overall. Their most recent series win came against the Giants.

When the Brewers win, they tend to do so by a wide margin, as their average run differential in victories is +3.7. Milwaukee’s run line record as the underdog is an impressive 40-19, but they are just 32-47 against the run line as the favorite. The Brewers’ run line record on the road is 39-33, while they are .500 against the run line at home at 33-33.

The Brewers are 27-21 when the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs this season. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game, and their overall over/under record is 73-56. Today’s over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is slightly higher than their season average of 8 runs per game.

Pitching Matchup

Steven Matz gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Brewers on the road. So far, he has made six starts and has a record of 1-2 with an ERA of 6.18. Looking at his overall numbers, Matz has a WHIP of 1.74 and opponents are batting .325 this season. In his last outing, Matz finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Matz has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three outings.

Right-hander Aaron Civale is starting for the Brewers today and comes into the game with a record of 5-8 and an ERA of 4.59. This year, he has made 26 starts, and opponents are batting .253 off him. In his 26 appearances, Civale has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 8.45 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he pitched seven scoreless innings, giving up just two hits and two walks. Civale has won each of his last three starts. At home, his ERA is 3.43 compared to 6.88 on the road.

Cardinals vs. Brewers Offense Outlook

So far this season, the Cardinals offense has been below average, averaging 4.2 runs per game (23rd in the MLB). They are also just 18th in home runs and have a team batting average of .249, which is 10th in the league. One thing to keep an eye on is that the Cardinals are 7th in the league in BABIP, so they could be due to see a little more offensive production in the near future.

Paul Goldschmidt has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/20 in his last five games. For the season, he is hitting just .244, but his 55 RBIs are 4th on the team, and he is 2nd on the team with 20 homers. Alec Burleson has also been a big power threat for the Cardinals, as his 21 homers are the most on the team. Masyn Winn is batting .281 and has 12 homers.

Over the past 10 games, Willy Adames has been on fire for the Brewers, going 14/42 with seven homers and 14 RBIs. Adames is already the team’s top home run hitter for the season, and his 99 RBIs are 4th in the MLB. Adames is also on a current 11-game hitting streak. William Contreras has also been a big run producer for the Brewers, as his 80 RBIs are 2nd on the team, and he is batting .280 for the season.

As a team, the Brewers are 5th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging five runs per contest. Overall, they are 8th in batting average and have the 3rd-best on-base percentage in the league. Milwaukee is also one of the best teams in the league at drawing walks.

Free Cardinals vs. Brewers MLB Pick

The Brewers have won seven of their last ten games and are right in the thick of things for one of the top-two spots in the National League. Aaron Civale is coming off his best start since being traded to Milwaukee, and although I don’t see him tossing seven scoreless, I do like him and the Brewers tonight. My pick is Milwaukee on the money line.