Brewers vs. Yankees Betting Preview: Opening Day Interleague Showdown Analysis

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Milwaukee Brewers: 93-69 SU / OU 81-71 / Runline 93-69
New York Yankees: 94-68 SU / OU 86-71 / Runline 94-68

Brewers Records

Last season, the Brewers finished with a record of 93-69, which was good for 3rd place in the National League and 1st place in the NL Central. In the Wild Card round, they lost to the Mets 2-1. As underdogs, Milwaukee went 93-69.

At home, the Brewers were 47-34 compared to 46-35 on the road. In series play, they went 29-18-4 overall, including a 14-9-2 mark at home and a 15-9-2 record on the road. In the NL Central, their division record was 32-20.

As the underdog in all 162 games last season, the Brewers went 93-69 against the run line. Their average scoring margin for the season was +0.8 runs per game. In games, they covered the run line; their average scoring margin was +3.6 runs per game compared to -2.9 runs per game. In games, they did not cover the run line. Their road run line record was 46-35, with an average scoring margin of +1.1 runs per game.

When the Brewers' games had an over/under line of 7.5 runs last season, the over/under record was 23-16, and their contests averaged a combined 8.8 runs per game. For the season, their games had an average over/under line of 8.3 runs, and 72.2% of their games had higher over/under lines than today's line of 7.5 runs. Overall, 59.9% of their games finished with more runs than 7.5 runs.

Yankees Records

Despite losing in the World Series to the Dodgers, the Yankees had the best record in the American League last season at 94-68. In the regular season, they went 30-17-4 in series play, including a 13-9-3 mark at home and a 17-8-1 record on the road.

Today, the Yankees are favored on the money line at -154. Last season, they went 94-68 as the underdog. In the American League, the Yankees were in first place and also first in the AL-East. Their overall home record was 44-37, while they went 50-31 on the road.

The Yankees finished last season with an average run differential of +0.9 runs per game. They went 94-68 against the run line, including a 44-37 mark at home and 50-31 on the road. In games in which they covered the run line, their average scoring margin was +4.1 runs per game compared to -3.5 runs per game in games they did not cover. They were the underdog in all of their games last season, finishing with a run line record of 94-68.

When looking at the Yankees' over/under record from last season, they finished with an O/U record of 86-71. On average, their games had an over/under line of 8.5 runs, and 85.2% of their games had higher O/U lines than today's line of 7.5 runs. In games with an O/U line of 7.5 runs, the over/under record was 8-10. Last season, 59.9% of their games finished with more runs than 7.5 runs.

Pitching Matchup

Freddy Peralta is coming off a season in which he made 32 starts and finished with a record of 11-9. His ERA last year was 3.68, and he made 11 quality starts. Peralta's WHIP for the season was 1.22, and he allowed a total of 26 home runs. His strikeout-to-walk ratio for the season was 2.9, and he averaged 2.1 walks per game. Last season, Peralta finished with a batting average allowed of .224 and an on-base percentage allowed of .304. His slugging percentage allowed was .388, and his FIP for the season was 4.16. For the season, Peralta averaged 10.36 strikeouts per nine innings and allowed a total of 26 home runs.

Carlos Rodón is coming off a season in which he made 32 starts and went 16-9. His ERA for the season was 3.96, and he finished the year with a WHIP of 1.22. Rodón allowed a batting average of .234 and a slugging percentage of .432. For the season, he made 16 quality starts and gave up a total of 31 home runs. His strikeouts per nine innings average was 10.03, while his walks per nine innings average was 2.93.

Brewers vs. Yankees Offense Outlook

Last season, the Brewers were one of the best teams in terms of getting on base, ranking 4th in the league with a .326 on-base percentage. Their offense was 6th in the league in runs per game at home and 6th on the road. Overall, they were 6th in the league in RBIs and 7th in batting average. The team's 177 home runs were 14th in the MLB.

Last season, the Yankees were the best home run hitting team in the league, belting 237 homers. They were also 3rd in runs per game at 5.0. On the road, they were 3rd in runs per game at 5.3. Overall, they were 3rd in WOBA and 3rd in OPS.

Free Brewers vs. Yankees MLB Pick

Our pick for this Brewers vs. Yankees matchup is to take the Brewers on the money line, with the payout sitting at +130. We have the Brewers winning this one by a final score of 5-4.

The story of Freddy Peralta's career has been inconsistency, as he has a ton of talent but often doesn't work deep into games and relies on strikeouts. However, he does struggle with giving up the long ball. Peralta didn't have a great spring training, and facing this Yankees is a tough way to start the season. I'm taking the Yankees on the money line in this one.