Brewers vs Dodgers Pick

Event: Brewers @ Dodgers
Date: July 30, 2018 at 10:10pm EDT
Location: Dodger Stadium
Money Line: Brewers +135 / Dodgers -155
Total line: 7.5
By Darin Zank

National League playoff contenders clash when the Brewers and Dodgers open a four-game series out at Chavez Ravine Monday night (10:10 ET, ESPN). Which way are we playing this contest with our daily free MLB pick?

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened Los Angeles and Kenta Maeda at around -165 over Milwaukee and Freddy Peralta, with an over/under of 8 runs. Early betting action then pushed that line down about a dime, to the -155 range. With a good dimeline sportsbook +145 or better can be had on the Brewers. 

The Dodgers could also be found at around +135 spotting the 1.5 runs to the Brewers.

The Brewers just took three of four games from the Giants in San Francisco over the weekend, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday 8-5. Milwaukee grabbed an early 2-0 lead Sunday on a Ryan Braun homer, but starter Junior Guerra aided his own doom by walking three straight batters in the bottom of the third, setting up Buster Posey for the big hit of the game, a bases-clearing double that gave the Giants the lead for good.

Still, even with Sunday’s loss the Brewers are 5-2 over their last seven games. At 61-47 overall Milwaukee trails the first-place Cubs by a game and a half in the NL Central, but also leads the NL wild-card race by a game and a half over Arizona.

LA, meanwhile, just took three of four games from the Braves in Atlanta, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday 4-1. After scoring 17 runs through the first three games of the series the Dodgers came within one strike of getting no-hit Sunday.

Even with Sunday’s defeat Los Angeles is 10-5 over its last 15 games. At 59-47 overall the Dodgers lead the NL West by a half-game over the second-place Diamondbacks.

This is the second encounter between these teams this season. Coming out of the All-Star break LA took two of three games from the Brewers at Miller Park.

Maeda (7-5, 3.27) by our strict standards, is only 5/17 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last three. But some of that is due to a short leash. Last Tuesday he gave up four runs, three on one swing of the bat, through seven innings of a game the Dodgers eventually lost to Philadelphia 7-4 in 16 innings. And over his last six appearances Maeda’s allowed just eight earned runs through 32 2/3 innings. On the year Los Angeles is only 8-9 with Maeda, although that’s not all his fault, with the unders going 12-4.

In four career starts against Milwaukee Maeda has allowed five runs through 22 1/3 innings. The Dodgers won three of those four games, and three of those games played under their totals.

Rookie righty Peralta (4-2, 3.74) is 3/8 on quality starts, and 0 for his last two. Last Wednesday he got knocked around for seven runs on four hits and four walks through six innings against Washington, and just before that he gave up three runs in less than four innings against Miami. On the year the Brewers are 5-3 with Peralta, with the overs going 5-3.

This will be Peralta’s first-ever start against Los Angeles, which sometimes provides the pitcher with an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.

We’re giving LA and Maeda the check-mark in this pitching match-up.

Milwaukee, which just added former Royal Mike Moustakas to its lineup, ranks 13th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .251 team batting average, 13th with a .319 team OBP and 13th with a .418 team slugging percentage.

LA, which recently added former Oriole Manny Machado to its lineup, ranks 12th against RH pitching with a .252 BA, 4th with a .332 OBP and 4th with a .445 slugging percentage.

We’ll give the Dodgers the advantage with the sticks for Monday.

The Brewers bullpen ranks 5th in the ML with a 3.34 ERA and 11th with a 1.27 WHIP.

The LA pen ranks 11th in ERA at 3.74 and 9th in WHIP at 1.25.

We’ll give Milwaukee a slight edge in the comparison of the bullpens.

The totals are 25-25 in games played at Dodger Stadium this year, which are averaging 8.1 total runs per.

Los Angeles gets two of our baseball handicapping check-marks, but sometimes when betting baseball it’s all about value. And in this spot we believe the Dodgers are favored by too much. Meanwhile Milwaukee has scored at least five runs in five of its last seven times out. We’re betting the Brew Crew Monday night.