Braves vs. Phillies Pick: Must Win in Philly

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Thursday, October 12th, 8:07 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: TBS
Money Line: Braves -155/Phillies +129 (Bet cheaper odds at BAS Sportsbook!)
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Braves on Thursday, October 12th at Citizens Bank Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Braves vs. Phillies Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Atlanta Braves: 104-58 SU / OU 94-67 / Runline 84-81
Philadelphia Phillies: 90-72 SU / OU 77-79 / Runline 76-91

Even though the Braves are in first place in the NL East, they have gone just 2-3 over their last five games. Atlanta’s overall record currently sits at 104-58, including going 52-29 on the road and 52-29 at home. Their series record stands at 34-13-4.

• The Braves have four straight losses vs. the runline and have a season-long run margin of 1.3.
• The Braves have been favored in 90.9% of their games and have runline records of 40-43 and 44-38 at home and on the road, respectively
• The over has hit in 58% of the Braves’ 162 games at 94-67.

The Phillies head into today’s game vs. the Braves with an overall record of 90-72. This mark has them sitting 2nd in the NL East. Currently, they are 14 games out of the division lead. Over their last five games, they are 4-1 and have a road and home record of 41-40 and 49-32, respectively. Philadelphia’s overall series record sits at 30-18-4.

• The Phillies have covered the runline in six straight games and have a season-long run margin of 0.6.
• The Phillies have been favored in 67.7% of their games and have runline records of 37-47 and 39-44 at home and on the road, respectively
• So far, the Phillies have an over/under record of just 77-79.

Pitching Matchup

Starter Spencer Strider comes in with an overall record of 20-5 for the Braves. Having made 33 appearances, his ERA is 3.86 and he has a K/9 figure of 13.55. Additionally, he has a FIP of 2.85 and an OBP of .271.

The 3-0 defeat against the Phillies in Spencer Strider’s previous start saw him take the loss after allowing two runs across seven innings on the mound.

Across 23 appearances, Ranger Suárez has a slugging percentage allowed of .408 and enters with a WHIP of 1.42. His overall record is 4-6 on an ERA of 4.18. For the season, he has a total of 119 K’s, and is averaging 8.57 strikeouts per nine innings. Suárez’s record on the road is 3-3 and 1-3 at home. This includes an ERA of 2.85 (road) and 6.35 (home), respectively.

Giving up zero runs and one hit during his last appearance against the Braves, Ranger Suárez did not factor into the decision. Yet, the Phillies managed to win the game by a score of 3-0.

Braves vs. Phillies Offense Outlook

With a total of 307 home runs hit so far this season, the Braves are among the top home run hitting teams in baseball (1st). This has translated to an average of 5.8 runs per game and a collective batting average of .276. When playing on the road, their slugging percentage is .472 compared to .496 at home.

Atlanta Braves Top Hitters On The Road

Atlanta Braves Top Hitters: Last Five Games

With 168 games under their belt, the Phillies are ranked 8th in the league at 4.9 runs per game. Philadelphia has gone deep 220 times, ranking them 7th in home runs. Their overall batting average is .256, .241 on the road, and .257 at home.

Philadelphia Phillies Top Bats

Philadelphia Phillies Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Free MLB Pick

Even though there have been plenty of surprising upsets in the playoff so far, I still have faith in this Braves squad. Look for Spencer Strider to help the Braves send this series back to Atlant for game 5. I like Atlanta on the moneyline.