Braves vs Phillies Betting Pick: NL East Battle Heats Up
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Saturday, August 31st, 7:15 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: FOX
Money Line: Braves +124/Phillies -146
Total Line: 8
Betting Preview
Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Braves on Saturday, August 31st at Citizens Bank Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.
Betting Odds
| ML | RL | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | +124 | +1.5 | O 8 (-108) |
| PHI | -146 | -1.5 | U 8 (-112) |
From Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, we have the Braves and Phillies facing off in an NL East matchup. Max Fried will be starting for the Braves, while the Phillies are going with Zack Wheeler. Philadelphia is 1st in the NL East with a record of 79-56, and the Braves are 2nd at 74-61.
The Phillies are currently favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -146 compared to the Braves at +124. This game can be seen on FOX, and the over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
Braves vs. Phillies Projected Lineup
| Player | Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | 1 | CF |
| Ramón Laureano | 2 | RF |
| Marcell Ozuna | 3 | DH |
| Matt Olson | 4 | 1B |
| Orlando Arcia | 5 | SS |
| Sean Murphy | 6 | C |
| Jarred Kelenic | 7 | LF |
| Gio Urshela | 8 | 3B |
| Whit Merrifield | 9 | 2B |
| Max Fried | – | SP |
| Player | Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 1 | DH |
| Trea Turner | 2 | SS |
| Bryce Harper | 3 | 1B |
| Alec Bohm | 4 | 3B |
| Nick Castellanos | 5 | RF |
| J.T. Realmuto | 6 | C |
| Brandon Marsh | 7 | LF |
| Edmundo Sosa | 8 | 2B |
| Johan Rojas | 9 | CF |
| Zack Wheeler | – | SP |
Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record
Atlanta Braves: 74-61 SU / OU 51-79 / Runline 64-71
Atlanta picked up a 7-2 road win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Braves offense got off to a fast start, scoring three runs in the first and adding two more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Phillies got on the board with two runs in the 4th and didn’t score another run until putting up one in the 7th.
Reynaldo Lopez started for the Braves and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued five walks. As for the Phillies, Ranger Suarez got the start and took the loss, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work.
Orlando Arcia and Sean Murphy each homered for the Braves, while Matt Olson went 2/4 with two RBIs and two runs scored. Marcell Ozuna also had a two-hit game and drove in two runs.
Braves Records & Recent Play
With an overall record of 74-61, the Braves are five games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Atlanta is 23-19 in divisional matchups this season. The Braves have won five straight series, and their overall series record is 23-15-5 this year.
At home, the Braves are 36-28 this season, and they have gone 38-33 on the road. So far, they have been the favorite in most of their games, putting together a record of 62-47 in those matchups. As the underdog on the road, the Braves are 11-12 this year.
Atlanta has been a strong bet on the run line this season, going 64-71 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they have covered the run line in 38 of 71 games. The Braves have been a good bet as an underdog, going 16-10 on the run line, and they have covered in five straight games when getting the runs. Their average run margin in wins is +3.6, while it is -3.3 in losses.
The Braves are on the road against the Phillies today, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The combined run average in Braves games this season is 8.2 runs. The Braves have a 51-79 over/under record this season, and the average over/under line in their games is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Braves have an 8-13-1 record. So far this season, 58.5% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, and 25.2% of their games have had over/under lines set lower than 8 runs. The over has hit in the last two games for the Braves.
Phillies Records & Recent Play
With an overall record of 79-56, the Phillies lead the NL East by five games over the Braves. The Phillies took the series opener but dropped the second game of the series. So far, they have gone 21-15 in divisional games.
At home, the Phillies are 45-25 this season, and they have gone 34-31 on the road. As the favorite, the Phillies are 67-41 and 44-22 when favored at home. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 23-15-6 and have won two straight series.
When betting the Phillies on the run line this season, it has been a coin flip. They are 65-70 overall and 32-38 at home. Their average run margin for the season is +0.8 runs per game. They have been a better bet on the road, going 33-32, compared to 32-38 at home. They have been a favorite in 108 games and an underdog in 27 games. Their average run margin in wins is +4.0 runs per game, while it is -3.7 runs per game in losses.
The Phillies are playing at home today against the Atlanta Braves with an over/under line of 8 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.9, and their over/under record is 63-65. The average over/under line for their games this season is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 8, their record is 17-15-1. In 49.6% of their games, the over/under line has been set higher than 8 runs, and in 25.9% of their games, the line has been set lower than 8 runs. The over has hit in their last two games.
Pitching Matchup
Left-hander Max Fried gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Phillies on the road. Fried has made 23 starts this year and has a record of 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA. This season, he has pitched much better on the road, coming in with a record of 6-4 and 5.74 ERA. At home, his record is 2-3 with a 5.28 ERA. Fried’s most recent outing came against the Twins, where he picked up the win, going five innings and giving up one earned run. He has made 11 quality starts this year and is averaging 8.48 strikeouts per nine innings.
Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Braves at home. Wheeler has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 12-6 with an ERA of 2.75. So far, he has turned in 20 quality starts and has a WHIP of 1.00. Wheeler’s ERA at home is 2.71 compared to 3.84 on the road. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Braves vs. Phillies Offense Outlook
Marcell Ozuna has been one of the best hitters in the league this season, as his 98 RBIs are 3rd in the MLB, and he is also 4th in the league with 37 home runs. Ozuna is batting .309 for the season and comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak. Matt Olson has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/40 in his last 10 games with four homers.
Overall, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game and are one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams. However, they have been striking out at a high rate and have been below average in terms of on-base percentage. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 12th in the league.
Over the past nine games, Bryce Harper has been on fire for the Phillies, going 13/33 (.394) with five runs scored. Harper is 10th in the league with 26 homers and is 3rd on the team with 76 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 28 homers and is 2nd on the team with 82 RBIs, but he is batting just .240 for the season.
Philadelphia’s offense comes into the game averaging 4.8 runs per game (8th) and is 3rd in the league in home batting average (.258). They are also one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams and have been very good at avoiding strikeouts this season.
Free Braves vs. Phillies MLB Pick
Today’s pitching matchup between Zack Wheeler and Max Fried is definitely one worth watching on Saturday. Atlanta picked up a big win on Friday in this series and needs to stay hot as they look to hold on to that final Wild Card spot in the NL. However, I do like Philadelphia to bounce back in this one. With the line sitting at -146, I still see there being enough value to take Philly on the money line.
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