Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Pick 6/22/21

Atlanta Braves (34-37) vs. New York Mets (37-30)
When: 7:10 p.m., Tuesday, June 22
Where: Citi Field, New York
Moneyline: ATL -110/NYM +100 (BetNow)
Runline: Braves +1.5/Mets + 1.5
Total: 7

Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton (6-3, 4.03 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) vs. Marcus Stroman (6-5, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP.

Quick Starters

Here’s one of the best ways to make money in 2021 on baseball betting: taking the Mets to hold the lead after five innings at home. Only three teams (both Chicago teams and Colorado) have returned more than the Mets have in their home games, as bettors are up more than 7.5 times their original stake when they’re betting on New York in the first five innings. Part of that is because the Mets have played a few games less than the rest of MLB because of an early-season cancellation, but the fact remains that the Mets have only trailed after five innings at home seven times all season. However, one of those came on Monday in the second game of their doubleheader with the Braves, mainly because the offense for the Mets never got going. That’s the danger with this bet: the Mets basically bank on the idea that their offense can do just enough to support their pitchers and let them take care of the rest. For the most part, it’s worked, but the Mets have trailed after five in two of their past three games because the offense didn’t provide any support at all. Consistency On the Mound One of the unlucky pitchers who didn’t get much in the way of support from the Mets’ lineup was Marcus Stroman, Tuesday’s starter for New York. His most recent start was one of the shutouts, a 2-0 loss to the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Even though he couldn’t keep the ball in the park in that loss, that was about the only fundamental flaw in his performance, as he scattered four hits in that game; he just couldn’t get enough outs via fanning the Cubs’ hitters. The former half of that performance is more indicative of his season than that latter, as Stroman has spent a fair amount of time putting up strong performances on the back of consistent strikeouts and low amounts of hits. Only two starts all season have seen him give up more than three earned runs, and eight of his past nine starts have seen his strikeout total fall between five and eight whiffs. In short, you know what you’re getting with Stroman, and what you’re getting is usually a pretty reliable bet, one way or another.

One Bright Star

The Braves have fallen short of expectations this season, but Ronald Acuna certainly hasn’t been the reason for Atlanta’s struggles. It’s hard to think of anything that Acuna could have done that hasn’t happened yet this season, as he leads the Braves in home runs, batting average, and stolen bases and has proven himself to be the leader of a team that desperately needs a spark. Whether a spark can fix all of the issues that have plagued Atlanta’s offense remains to be determined, as the Braves have only been middling on offense this season. Freddie Freeman seems to have gotten himself back to being a normal threat at the plate, but Atlanta doesn’t really have a lot of big names in its lineup beyond Acuna and Freeman. If any of their big hitters has a bad game against a team like this, it could end in disaster, given how good the Mets have been in low-scoring and home games.

Betting Trends

• The Braves are 1-5 in their past six games on the road.
• The Braves are 3-7 in their past ten games against a right-handed starter.
• The Mets are 20-6 in their past 26 home games.
• The Mets are 2-5 in their past seven against the NL East.
• The under is 3-1-1 in the Braves’ past five road games.
• The under is 21-8-2 in the Mets’ past 31 home games.
• The Braves are 1-4 in the past five meetings with the Mets.
• The overalls are 3-1-1 in the past five meetings in New York.

Weather Report

It’s supposed to be a calm, clear night in Queens, with temperatures at 66 degrees at the first pitch and the wind playing little role. Winds of nine miles per hour are expected, and wins will push toward first base.

Dan’s pick

The Mets have slumped as of late, and this doesn’t appear to be a situation where you can bank on New York getting its way out of this one quickly. The Mets are in the midst of a tough week, and things only get tougher against an Atlanta team that knows it needs to win in order to start to try to catch up to the Mets and make this an actual race in the NL East. The Braves have an opportunity, and they need to make sure that they take advantage of it if they’re going to have any chance at the playoffs. Give me Atlanta here.