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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Pick

by Darin Zank | Last updated May 30, 2019 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (29-27) vs. New York Yankees (36-19), 5/30/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Thursday, May 30
Where: Yankee Stadium, New York, NY
Listed Pitchers: Chris Sale (1-6, 4.19 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs. JA Happ (4-3, 5.09, 1.23)
TV: MLB, YES, NESN

Moneyline: Red Sox -165/Yankees +155 (Mybookie)
Over/Under: 8.5

The Yankees are rolling, while the Red Sox are struggling just to tread water, heading into the opener of this four-game rivalry series Thursday night in the Bronx. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened Boston and Sale at around -135 over New York and Happ, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then steamed that line to upwards of -165.

The Red Sox could also be found getting around +100 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Set-Up

Boston just lost two of three games at home to Cleveland earlier this week, losing Wednesday’s series rubber match 14-9. Just before that the Sox dropped two of three games at Houston. So Boston is just 1-3-1 over its last five series and 7-8 over its last 15 games.

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New York, meanwhile, just took two of three games at home from San Diego, winning Wednesday’s series rubber match 7-0. Just before that the Yanks took two of three games at Kansas City. So New York is 8-0 over its last eight series and 18-5 over its last 23 games.

At 36-19 overall the Yankees lead the AL East by one game over second-place Tampa Bay and by 7.5 games over the 29-27 Red Sox.

This series is the second meeting between these teams this season. Back in mid-April the Yanks swept two games from the Sox also in the Bronx.

Thursday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Happ, by our stringent standards, is 4/11 on quality starts this season, and just one for his last five. Last Saturday he allowed three runs on four hits, with 10 strikeouts, through six innings of a 7-3 New York victory over the Royals. But over his four starts previous to that Happ gave up 13 runs and 22 hits, including six home runs, through 19 2/3 innings.

Still, on the season the Yankees are 8-3 with Happ, 4-0 over his last four starts.

Over his last six starts against Boston, five last year (two while still with Toronto) and one back in April of this season, Happ allowed 13 earned runs and 27 hits through 31 innings. Happ’s teams finished 4-2 in those games.

Fellow southpaw Sale is 6/11 on quality starts this season, and five for his last six. Last Friday he gave up four runs – two earned – and three hits through six innings of a 4-3 Sox loss to the Astros. And over his last six starts he’s allowed 10 ER and 20 hits through 39 1/3 innings, with 64 strikeouts!

For the season Boston is only 3-8 with Sale, but 3-2 over his last five starts.

Over his last four starts against New York, three last season and one back in April, Sale allowed seven runs and 21 hits through 23 1/3 innings, with 33 whiffs. The Sox went 3-1 in those games.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

Boston is batting .243/.317/.436 against left-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored 26 runs over its last three games.

New York is batting .237/.305/.376 against LH pitching this season. This lineup continues to operate without several big sticks, like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, but has still managed to score at least five runs 10 times in its last 11 games.

The Bullpens

The Red Sox bullpen owns a 4.12 ERA this season, along with a 1.29 WHIP.

The Yankees pen owns a 3.63 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, both of which rank in the top five in the Majors.

Totals Report

Overs are 32-22 in Red Sox games this season.

Overs are 29-23 Yankees games this season.

Unders are 19-10 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.

Unders are 7-4 with Sale this season.

Overs are 6-4 with Happ this season.

Free MLB Pick

New York is hot, Boston, not so much. And while Sale owns the edge in the pitching match-up the Yanks own the edge in the bullpen. Also, we never have a problem going against the betting flow. We’ll take the Yanks at the home-dog price for our free MLB pick for Thursday.